IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board’s strategy of pursuing two parallel paths to generate value.  </li>
<li>The Board’s management initiatives are steadily being implemented, but have yet to deliver shareholder value. Since they were announced, the share price has modestly outperformed the Nikkei 225.</li>
<li>7&amp;I and Couche Tard signed an NDA but a viable divestiture plan to gain US regulatory approval remains in doubt, particularly as PE has emerged as the likely bidder. </li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board’s strategy of pursuing two parallel paths to generate value.  
The Board’s management initiatives are steadily being implemented, but have yet to deliver shareholder value. Since they were announced, the share price has modestly outperformed the Nikkei 225.
7&amp;I and Couche Tard signed an NDA but a viable divestiture plan to gain US regulatory approval remains in doubt, particularly as PE has emerged as the likely bidder. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Wait and Hope

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Winner winner chicken dinner.  A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In addition, people  thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a> pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.</li>
</ul>


Winner winner chicken dinner.  A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In addition, people  thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly. 

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The BOJ released its loan officer survey on 21 April which is generally positive for lending demand at firms and eased credit standards (willingness to lend)</li>
<li>Demand for credit over past 3 months for firms, 43 respondents were about the same, 6 were moderately stronger, 1 substantially stronger. No respondents were weaker</li>
<li>Lending policies saw most respondents unchanged, but there were some as 'eased somewhat' and 1 'eased considerably' with no respondents reporting tightening</li>
</ul>


The BOJ released its loan officer survey on 21 April which is generally positive for lending demand at firms and eased credit standards (willingness to lend)
Demand for credit over past 3 months for firms, 43 respondents were about the same, 6 were moderately stronger, 1 substantially stronger. No respondents were weaker
Lending policies saw most respondents unchanged, but there were some as 'eased somewhat' and 1 'eased considerably' with no respondents reporting tightening


Japan - New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today, partway through the day, we got a Bloomberg article suggesting a large-scale buyback was to come. Post-close, we got the full details. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.7andi.com/library/dbps_data/_material_/localhost/en/release_pdf/2025_0306_ir01en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"Seven &amp; i Holdings Announces Plan to Unlock Shareholder Value Through Leadership Changes and Transformational Capital and Business Initiatives"</a>. </li>
<li>Sale of York. Management change. Update on Special Committee work with ACT. Commitment to return ¥2trln to shareholders via buybacks by FY2030. Higher divs. IPO of 7-Eleven Inc (US).</li>
</ul>


Today, partway through the day, we got a Bloomberg article suggesting a large-scale buyback was to come. Post-close, we got the full details. 

"Seven &amp; i Holdings Announces Plan to Unlock Shareholder Value Through Leadership Changes and Transformational Capital and Business Initiatives". 
Sale of York. Management change. Update on Special Committee work with ACT. Commitment to return ¥2trln to shareholders via buybacks by FY2030. Higher divs. IPO of 7-Eleven Inc (US).


7&I (3382) - A Starting Point for the Standalone Plan - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> Board announced a plan to unlock and distribute significant value to shareholders.</li>
<li>The initial excitement focused on the positives of leadership changes, US Assets IPO, a higher-than-expected valuation for the Superstore Business and a considerable buyback. </li>
<li>The negatives of a long-dated buyback, inevitable rejection of the Couche-Tard offer, an uncertain US Assets IPO and ongoing HoldCo discount suggest the initial excitement will fizzle out. </li>
</ul>


The Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) Board announced a plan to unlock and distribute significant value to shareholders.
The initial excitement focused on the positives of leadership changes, US Assets IPO, a higher-than-expected valuation for the Superstore Business and a considerable buyback. 
The negatives of a long-dated buyback, inevitable rejection of the Couche-Tard offer, an uncertain US Assets IPO and ongoing HoldCo discount suggest the initial excitement will fizzle out. 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Board’s Plan to Unlock Value Is a Stop-Gap Measure

Japan

Seven Bank, Ltd. provides banking services mainly through Automated Teller Machine (ATM) across Japan. The bank cooperates with affiliated financial institutions to establish the nationwide ATM network and provide remote banking services, including deposits and loans.

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Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Wait and Hope

The AGM was a vote of confidence in the Board's plan. However, the effectiveness of the management initiatives remains uncertain, and a Couche-Tard...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan - New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy

Newly released Loan Officer Survey by BOJ has positive implications for current and forward loan growth, especially to companies. We can also...

Daniel Tabbush

7&I (3382) - A Starting Point for the Standalone Plan - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

Some good. Some bad. Some ugly. 7&i's Plan. Big buyback over 5yrs (36% of mktcap). Higher divs. An IPO of US 7-11, sale of York Holdings for...

Travis Lundy

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Board’s Plan to Unlock Value Is a Stop-Gap Measure

The Board’s plan has several positive aspects, such as the considerable buyback. However, it also has several negative aspects, which suggest that...

Arun George

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