IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a> disclosed that on 19 November, it received an indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-corp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12691:1" rel="noopener">Credit Corp (CCP AU)</a> consisting of a scheme (A$0.77) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.72). </li>
<li>The scheme has a low chance of success, and the takeover offer’s 50.1% minimum acceptance condition will prove problematic. The lack of due diligence signals the Board’s reluctance to engage.</li>
<li>The tardy disclosure is primarily intended to distract from Jeremy Raper’s attempt to mount a Board spill. This is essentially a long-dated backend play on Raper successfully spilling the Board.   </li>
</ul>



Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed that on 19 November, it received an indicative proposal from Credit Corp (CCP AU) consisting of a scheme (A$0.77) and an off-market takeover offer (A$0.72). 
The scheme has a low chance of success, and the takeover offer’s 50.1% minimum acceptance condition will prove problematic. The lack of due diligence signals the Board’s reluctance to engage.
The tardy disclosure is primarily intended to distract from Jeremy Raper’s attempt to mount a Board spill. This is essentially a long-dated backend play on Raper successfully spilling the Board.   


Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.</li>
<li>The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. </li>
<li>I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group plc, a Swedish fintech giant and largest BNPL player in European Union, is expected to price $1B+ initial public offering next week.
The company’s amended F-1 puts the initial price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$13.6B at midpoint, down ~70% from peak valuation of ~$46B. 
I think risk/reward profile is favorable given large consumer and merchant scale, expansion into digital retail banking services and potential revenue growth re-acceleration into 2026.


Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group plc, a first mover in the BNPL space and AI-powered fintech company, is targeting an IPO valuation of between $13B and $14B, according to Reuters.</li>
<li>A Swedish founder-led decacorn is preparing for a roadshow after Labor Day this week. They intend to raise up to ~$1B and start trading in September.</li>
<li>$13B-$14B IPO valuation is cheap vs. peers and implies ~68% discount to Affirm. Klarna’s last down round was a $800M venture round in July of 2022 at a ~$6.7B valuation.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group plc, a first mover in the BNPL space and AI-powered fintech company, is targeting an IPO valuation of between $13B and $14B, according to Reuters.
A Swedish founder-led decacorn is preparing for a roadshow after Labor Day this week. They intend to raise up to ~$1B and start trading in September.
$13B-$14B IPO valuation is cheap vs. peers and implies ~68% discount to Affirm. Klarna’s last down round was a $800M venture round in July of 2022 at a ~$6.7B valuation.


Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).</li>
<li>The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.   </li>
</ul>



Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.   


Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>'s Scheme, and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kito-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19512:1" rel="noopener">Kito Corporation (6409 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)'s Scheme, and  Pfizer Inc (PFE US)'s Offer for Resapp Health (RAP AU).
Key updates took place for: Link Administration (LNK AU), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Kito Corporation (6409 JP), and Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

United States

Sezzle Inc. is a technology driven payments company based in the United States. Sezzle provides a platform that facilitates payments between shoppers and retailers, via a short-term, interest-free instalment payment plan.

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Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)

Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill

A binding proposal, if forthcoming at current terms, is unlikely to succeed. Humm is essentially a long-dated backend play on Jeremy Raper's...

Arun George

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

Klarna Group plc is expected to go public next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, valuation comps and set a 12-month target price for...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

Klarna Group plc, a leading EU BNPL fintech, targets $13B-14B IPO valuation, aiming to raise up to $1B and start trading in September under the...

Andrei Zakharov

Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer

The offer is unattractive on several metrics. There is already strong retail opposition. The Board should negotiate for better terms.

Arun George

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Humm Group (HUM AU): Credit Corp’s NBIO Belatedly Disclosed to Distract from a Potential Board Spill

A binding proposal, if forthcoming at current terms, is unlikely to succeed. Humm is essentially a long-dated backend play on Jeremy Raper's...

Arun George

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: Risk/Reward Profile Looks Good, Sequoia Stands To Be The Largest Winner

Klarna Group plc is expected to go public next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation, valuation comps and set a 12-month target price for...

Andrei Zakharov

Klarna IPO Valuation Update: $13B-$14B IPO Valuation Is Cheap Vs. Peers, ~68% Discount To Affirm

​Klarna Group plc, a leading EU BNPL fintech, targets $13B-14B IPO valuation, aiming to raise up to $1B and start trading in September under the...

Andrei Zakharov

Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer

The offer is unattractive on several metrics. There is already strong retail opposition. The Board should negotiate for better terms.

Arun George

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp Health, Kto Corp, Link Admin, Toyo, Fraser Hospitality

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Klarna Group plc, a leading EU BNPL fintech, targets $13B-14B IPO valuation, aiming to raise up to $1B and start trading in September under the...