Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That's an 8.7% discount for no dilution. </li>
<li>Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.</li>
<li>Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.</li>
</ul>


The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That's an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.


Nippon Express (9147 JP) - Buying the Overhang

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Cainiao is the world’s leading cross-border e-commerce logistics company regarding parcel volume in 2022, with one of the world’s largest logistics networks in terms of geographic reach.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and operating margins. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation. 
According to CIC, Cainiao is the world’s leading cross-border e-commerce logistics company regarding parcel volume in 2022, with one of the world’s largest logistics networks in terms of geographic reach.
The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and operating margins. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.


TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

Japan

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

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SG Holdings (9143 JP)

Nippon Express (9147 JP) - Buying the Overhang

NX (9147) saw its Offering price today. It priced down nearly 9% from pre-announcement. No dilution, and net mitigants are half the offering. It...

Travis Lundy

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on market share gains in China, improving performance of the largest business (international logistics), and rising gross and...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

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