Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What the dollar bear market rally means for our themes</li>
<li>The domestic Chinese market starts to rally, outperforming in Asia</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What the dollar bear market rally means for our themes
The domestic Chinese market starts to rally, outperforming in Asia


Overview #31 - China Breaks Out and the USD Has Its Moment

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A big structural change to underpin consumer demand goes unnoticed</li>
<li>Efforts to prop up retail sales this year have had the desired effect</li>
<li>We change up the members of the original consumer basket</li>
</ul>


A big structural change to underpin consumer demand goes unnoticed
Efforts to prop up retail sales this year have had the desired effect
We change up the members of the original consumer basket


Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans</li>
<li>Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Tariff chatter is a sideshow; the real focus should be  on the US Administration’s Fed plans
Non-Chinese miners of rare earths and other strategic minerals will command a steep premium.


Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>China’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market will reopen its doors to unprofitable companies as part of a broader set of measures announced Wednesday that aim to strengthen the stock market’s role in supporting high-tech and strategic emerging industries.</li><li>The measures include setting up a special sector for sci-tech growth companies on the Shanghai-based market, launching a pre-IPO review mechanism, and refining refinancing and strategic investor criteria, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), said in a speech at the annual Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai.</li><li>“Establishing a sci-tech growth sector on the STAR Market and reinstating the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies will provide more precise services to high-quality technology enterprises with major technological breakthroughs, promising commercial prospects, and a commitment to continuous investment in research and development,” Wu said.</li></ul>

China’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market will reopen its doors to unprofitable companies as part of a broader set of measures announced Wednesday that aim to strengthen the stock market’s role in supporting high-tech and strategic emerging industries.The measures include setting up a special sector for sci-tech growth companies on the Shanghai-based market, launching a pre-IPO review mechanism, and refining refinancing and strategic investor criteria, Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), said in a speech at the annual Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai.“Establishing a sci-tech growth sector on the STAR Market and reinstating the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies will provide more precise services to high-quality technology enterprises with major technological breakthroughs, promising commercial prospects, and a commitment to continuous investment in research and development,” Wu said.

China to Reopen STAR Market to Loss-Making Tech Firms  

China

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was developed on December 19, 1990 with a base value of 100. 

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Overview #31 - China Breaks Out and the USD Has Its Moment

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Dollar bear market rally and the domestic Chinese market.

Rikki Malik

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Low Bar, High Bounce: China’s Consumer Comeback

One of the members of our consumer basket, China Duty Free $1880, is up 16% today and 28% since we published, highlighting the asymmetric nature of...

Rikki Malik

Overview #30 – the Summer Doldrums-Not! Stage setting for the next phase of the bull market.

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Fed and the implications of DoD's stake in a rare earth...

Rikki Malik

China to Reopen STAR Market to Loss-Making Tech Firms

China’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market will reopen its doors to unprofitable companies as part of a broader set of measures announced Wednesday that aim...

Caixin Global