Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | to increase capital returns to its shareholders • BAM Group | completes divestment of its remaining 50% interest in Invesis to PGGM • Sif Holding | CFO Mr. Ben Meijer to resign at AGM • Avantium | replaces CFO and other changes to its Management Board</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | to increase capital returns to its shareholders • BAM Group | completes divestment of its remaining 50% interest in Invesis to PGGM • Sif Holding | CFO Mr. Ben Meijer to resign at AGM • Avantium | replaces CFO and other changes to its Management Board

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 26 March (Shell | BAM Group | Sif Holding | Avantium)

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.</li>
<li>Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.</li>
<li>Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.</li>
</ul>


Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

<ul>
<li>Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints: In 4Q24, Shell posted 'significantly lower' results in its Integrated Gas, Chemical and Renewables divisions. This became clear on the back of the yesterday’s issued trading update.</li>
<li>Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25: According to Bloomberg, Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus have selected various banks for an intended IPO of Dutch telecom provider Odido at some point in 1H25.  </li>
</ul>


Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints: In 4Q24, Shell posted 'significantly lower' results in its Integrated Gas, Chemical and Renewables divisions. This became clear on the back of the yesterday’s issued trading update.
Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25: According to Bloomberg, Apax Partners and Warburg Pincus have selected various banks for an intended IPO of Dutch telecom provider Odido at some point in 1H25.  


What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 January 2025 (Shell | Odido)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34

SLIGR NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 8 July (Shell | Household consumption | Corporate agenda)

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.</li><li>US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.</li><li>Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.</li></ul>

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 26 March (Shell | BAM Group | Sif Holding | Avantium)

In this edition: • Shell | to increase capital returns to its shareholders • BAM Group | completes divestment of its remaining 50% interest in...

The IDEA!

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 January 2025 (Shell | Odido)

In this edition: Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints; Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25

The IDEA!

SLIGR NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 8 July (Shell | Household consumption | Corporate agenda)

In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34

The IDEA!

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 26 March (Shell | BAM Group | Sif Holding | Avantium)

In this edition: • Shell | to increase capital returns to its shareholders • BAM Group | completes divestment of its remaining 50% interest in...

The IDEA!

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

​Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 9 January 2025 (Shell | Odido)

In this edition: Shell | 4Q24 trading update disappoints; Odido | IPO expected at some point in 1H25

The IDEA!

SLIGR NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 8 July (Shell | Household consumption | Corporate agenda)

In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34

The IDEA!

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2...

Base Oil News

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...