Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded contracts for HS2 in the UK • Black Friday update | Cyber Monday was the busiest day for the parcel logistics providers

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.</li>
<li>The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? </li>
<li>And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? </li>
</ul>


There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE's similar critical assets? 


Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.</li>
<li>Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.</li>
<li>Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date.
Robust demand due to recovery in economic activity across major markets has been a steady tailwind to oil prices despite the prevalent geo-political catalysts that have spurred across global markets.
Globally listed oil and gas producers and service providers have therefore seen a marginal improvement in their aggregate credit risk profiles, with their Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) dropping by close to 2bps over the same period.


Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices.</li><li>Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US Group II base oils unit for maintenance work.</li><li>Firm margins in recent months coincide with surge in US domestic base oils output in July-Aug 2025.</li></ul>

US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices.Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US Group II base oils unit for maintenance work.Firm margins in recent months coincide with surge in US domestic base oils output in July-Aug 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

<ul><li>US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.</li><li>Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.</li><li>Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance work.Sufficient availability of supply in recent weeks, even during plant-shutdown, points to signs of already-slower demand during that period.Expected rise in supply would coincide with time of year when domestic consumption typically slows anyway.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 6 December (Shell | InPost | BAM Group | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • Shell | gas joint venture with Equinor in the UK • InPost | Yodel hit by festive capacity crisis • BAM Group | awarded...

The IDEA!

Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC's Takeover

Santos Ltd (STO AU) dives ~11% after Abu Dhabi walks away, two days before a formal deadline. "Sensationally ended", as The Australian words it? I...

David Blennerhassett

Global O&G Firms' Credit Quality Improves on Tighter Oil Markets

Oil spot prices have gained at a relatively stable pace since the start of 2024, with crude prices rising close to 19% year to date. Robust demand...

Criat

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 November

US base oils prices stay relatively firm in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices. Firm margins in recent weeks coincide with shutdown of key US...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 November

US base oils demand could be more muted amid expectations of rise in domestic supply over coming weeks following completion of plant-maintenance...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

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P/E

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