Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34</li></ul>

In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34

SLIGR NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 8 July (Shell | Household consumption | Corporate agenda)

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.</li><li>US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.</li><li>Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.</li></ul>

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

<ul><li>US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows.</li><li>Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in Q2 2025 even with tighter supply and seasonal pick-up in consumption.</li><li>Dynamic points to weaker-than-usual demand and sufficient supply to cover requirements.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows.Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in Q2 2025 even with tighter supply and seasonal pick-up in consumption.Dynamic points to weaker-than-usual demand and sufficient supply to cover requirements.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July

<ul><li>Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.</li><li>Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.</li><li>Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.</li></ul>

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

<ul><li>US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.</li><li>In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.</li><li>US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.</li></ul>

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

SLIGR NA - What's News in Amsterdam - 8 July (Shell | Household consumption | Corporate agenda)

In this edition: • Shell | 2Q25 update: a clear profit warning • Dutch household consumption | up 1.1% YoY in May • Corporate agenda | week 29 – 34

The IDEA!

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows. Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025. Firm base...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024. In Q3 2024, US base...

Base Oil News

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