Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.</li>
<li>Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. </li>
<li>6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.</li>
</ul>


This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.
Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. 
6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.


Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Improved and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see H/A relationships easily. </li>
<li>We used to do it and decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Improvements this week due to popular demand, and updated format. Further feedback is welcome/appreciated. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Improved and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see H/A relationships easily. 
We used to do it and decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Improvements this week due to popular demand, and updated format. Further feedback is welcome/appreciated. 


Week 2 of the Brand New and Extra Spiffy 🦄 H/​A-Share Discount/​Premium Weekly (As of 18 Aug 2023)

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric (9009 JP)</a>'s valuation has deviated from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s since the proposed expansion of Tokyo Disney Sea, Fantasy Springs. That bifurcation should now reverse. </li>
<li>Don't expect a serious fight in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>'s hostile for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a>.  Fanuc could counter. It is possible others could step up but we wouldn't know. </li>
<li>On the back of the news to spin off and list some logistics ops, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> is probably a buy on weakness vs Stub Ops Peers. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric (9009 JP)'s valuation has deviated from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s since the proposed expansion of Tokyo Disney Sea, Fantasy Springs. That bifurcation should now reverse. 
Don't expect a serious fight in Nidec (6594 JP)'s hostile for Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP).  Fanuc could counter. It is possible others could step up but we wouldn't know. 
On the back of the news to spin off and list some logistics ops, Shenzhen International (152 HK) is probably a buy on weakness vs Stub Ops Peers. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/​Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> seeks to spin off logistic assets on a PRC exchange; and  51.56%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK)</a> intends to place out A shares.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on SZ Int'l/SZ E'Way are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen International (152 HK) seeks to spin off logistic assets on a PRC exchange; and  51.56%-held Shenzhen Expressway Co H (548 HK) intends to place out A shares.
Preceding my comments on SZ Int'l/SZ E'Way are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: SZ International's Logistics Spin-Offs

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a> to sustain efforts in realising and releasing the value of its assets, and this will be positive in narrowing its discount to book.</li>
<li>The plan to issue REIT by using Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics projects as underlying assets will add to earnings. We estimate they account for 14% of SZI's total project area.</li>
<li>Subscription to A-share issuance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway Co (548 HK)</a> will increase its book value by Rmb5bn. This will lower its P/B multiple to 0.46x, from 0.54x.</li>
</ul>


We expect Shenzhen International (152 HK) to sustain efforts in realising and releasing the value of its assets, and this will be positive in narrowing its discount to book.
The plan to issue REIT by using Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics projects as underlying assets will add to earnings. We estimate they account for 14% of SZI's total project area.
Subscription to A-share issuance of Shenzhen Expressway Co (548 HK) will increase its book value by Rmb5bn. This will lower its P/B multiple to 0.46x, from 0.54x.


Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Enhancing Its Values

China

Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited primarily invests in, constructs, operates, and manages toll highways and roads, alongside other urban and transportation infrastructure. The company also engages in environmental protection, including solid waste management and clean energy power generation. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.

Price Gauge
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Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)

Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

The new Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor (this week in A/H Premium rather than H/A Discount), now with Southbound AND Northbound flows. Last week was...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: SZ International's Logistics Spin-Offs

The parent is seeking to extract value via this NDRC/CSRC pilot program. That is positive. And SZ Int'l is at a deep discount to NAV. I'd tilt to...

David Blennerhassett

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Enhancing Its Values

SZI's planned REIT issuance on Hangzhou and Guizhou projects is just an example of its efforts in releasing asset value. The deemed disposal of SZE...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

The new Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor (this week in A/H Premium rather than H/A Discount), now with Southbound AND Northbound flows. Last week was...

Travis Lundy

Week 2 of the Brand New and Extra Spiffy 🦄 H/​A-Share Discount/​Premium Weekly (As of 18 Aug 2023)

Week 2 of the Brand New and Extra Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. Thanks for the requests. Some are implemented. Some are on the way. Trades were up...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/​Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: SZ International's Logistics Spin-Offs

The parent is seeking to extract value via this NDRC/CSRC pilot program. That is positive. And SZ Int'l is at a deep discount to NAV. I'd tilt to...

David Blennerhassett

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Enhancing Its Values

SZI's planned REIT issuance on Hangzhou and Guizhou projects is just an example of its efforts in releasing asset value. The deemed disposal of SZE...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Week 2 of the Brand New and Extra Spiffy 🦄 H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 18 Aug 2023)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Takisawa Machine Tools, Kesei Electric/Oriental, Shenzhen Int’l/E'Way, HMM