Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Shift4 Payments reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing notable growth in several key performance indicators, though there are areas that require caution.</li><li>The company posted gross revenue less network fees of $589 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA came in at $292 million, up by 56% from the previous year, with the organic growth excluding recent mergers and acquisitions at 18%.</li></ul>

Shift4 Payments reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing notable growth in several key performance indicators, though there are areas that require caution.The company posted gross revenue less network fees of $589 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year.Adjusted EBITDA came in at $292 million, up by 56% from the previous year, with the organic growth excluding recent mergers and acquisitions at 18%.

Shift4 Payments: Can This Powerful Global Blue Expansion Unlock a New Wave of Growth?

<ul><li>Shift4 Payments recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive developments and some potential challenges.</li><li>The company's strategic initiatives, international expansion, and recent acquisitions underscore its growth trajectory while simultaneously posing integration and execution risks.</li><li>In terms of financial performance, Shift4 Payments achieved 25% year-over-year growth in payment volumes, surpassing $50 billion for the first time.</li></ul>

Shift4 Payments recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive developments and some potential challenges.The company's strategic initiatives, international expansion, and recent acquisitions underscore its growth trajectory while simultaneously posing integration and execution risks.In terms of financial performance, Shift4 Payments achieved 25% year-over-year growth in payment volumes, surpassing $50 billion for the first time.

Shift4 Payments' Latest M&A Play: How Bambora Could Fuel Its Global Blitz!

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn</li>
<li>Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate</li>
<li>We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>  provided Potentia with due diligence to "develop a significantly improved proposal". Potentia subsequently walked away in May 2023.</li>
<li>On the 12th August 2025, Tyro announced it had received unsolicited NBIOs. This development also came to nought. </li>
<li>With shares down 13% YTD, reportedly M&amp;A is back in vogue for Tyro. A scrip Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/judo-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34571:1" rel="noopener">Judo Capital (JDO AU)</a> is one rumour doing the rounds.</li>
</ul>


Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play Tyro Payments (TYR AU)  provided Potentia with due diligence to "develop a significantly improved proposal". Potentia subsequently walked away in May 2023.
On the 12th August 2025, Tyro announced it had received unsolicited NBIOs. This development also came to nought. 
With shares down 13% YTD, reportedly M&amp;A is back in vogue for Tyro. A scrip Offer from Judo Capital (JDO AU) is one rumour doing the rounds.


Tyro Payments (TYR AU) Fielding Offers -  Again?

United States

Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides payment processing solutions. The Company offers software for transaction and money transfer activities. Shift4 Payments serves customers in the United States.

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Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)

Shift4 Payments: Can This Powerful Global Blue Expansion Unlock a New Wave of Growth?

Shift4 Payments reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing notable growth in several key performance indicators, though there...

Baptista Research

Shift4 Payments' Latest M&A Play: How Bambora Could Fuel Its Global Blitz!

Shift4 Payments recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive developments and some potential...

Baptista Research

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Tyro Payments (TYR AU) Fielding Offers - Again?

Tyro's metrics appear undemanding. However, there is currently no deal. And there may not be one anytime soon either; and shares continue to drift...

David Blennerhassett

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Shift4 Payments: Can This Powerful Global Blue Expansion Unlock a New Wave of Growth?

Shift4 Payments reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing notable growth in several key performance indicators, though there...

Baptista Research

Shift4 Payments' Latest M&A Play: How Bambora Could Fuel Its Global Blitz!

Shift4 Payments recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive developments and some potential...

Baptista Research

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. ​Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Tyro Payments (TYR AU) Fielding Offers - Again?

Tyro's metrics appear undemanding. However, there is currently no deal. And there may not be one anytime soon either; and shares continue to drift...

David Blennerhassett

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...