IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177307" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case. 
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. </li>
<li>We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. </li>
<li>MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK)'s IPO price of HK$202.5 looks attractive, as it is priced at 16.6x FY24 and 13.5x FY25 PER, below the mainland China peer average. 
We estimate a P/B of 4.6x, putting it marginally lower than the sector best-fit line. We think there is potential for at least a 20-30% upside after the IPO. 
MIXUE offers the possibility to participate in the spin-off of its overseas businesses in the medium term, which is explicitly spelt out as a plan.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>  is offering 17.1 million shares at a price of HK$202.50 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$3.45 Bn.</li>
<li>The company demonstrated stellar growth in store count, revenue, and profits, focusing on the mass-market freshly made beverage segment despite a sector slow down in 2024.</li>
<li>Mixue’s pace of store expansion may slow down going forward, however its ultra-low prices (RMB4-10) and scale provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable performance.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK)  is offering 17.1 million shares at a price of HK$202.50 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$3.45 Bn.
The company demonstrated stellar growth in store count, revenue, and profits, focusing on the mass-market freshly made beverage segment despite a sector slow down in 2024.
Mixue’s pace of store expansion may slow down going forward, however its ultra-low prices (RMB4-10) and scale provide a strong foundation for long-term sustainable performance.


Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
In MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. 
According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. 


China

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. develops and sells diversified tea beverage products, primarily through a franchise model under its 'ChaPanda' brand. The company offers a range of classic, seasonal, and regional tea drinks, and also manages supply chain, franchise operations, and related services. It was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Chengdu, People's Republic of China.

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

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Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

Mixue’s upcoming IPO valuations appear attractive, given robust growth track record, even amid a slowdown, and cost advantages that underpin long...

Devi Subhakesan

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Reasonably Attractive Pricing

​MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mixue Group IPO: The Good, The Bad and Valuations

Mixue’s upcoming IPO valuations appear attractive, given robust growth track record, even amid a slowdown, and cost advantages that underpin long...

Devi Subhakesan

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

MIXUE's IPO is attractive, priced below China's peer average with a potential for at least 20-30% upside post-IPO. Opportunity to participate in...