Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023</li>
<li>Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period</li>
<li>We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023
Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period
We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments


Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SUMCO delivered Q1 FY2026 sales of ¥101.4 billion, in line, an operating loss of ¥5.2 billion, an ordinary loss of ¥7.9 billion and a net loss of ¥8.4 billion.</li>
<li>YoY sales were basically flat while operating profit fell 11.1 billion yen, the vast majority of which, 6.1 billion yen, was attributable to higher depreciation from the prior CapEx cycle</li>
<li>Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance is ¥112 billion, up ¥10.6 billion sequentially, with the operating loss narrowing to ¥2.5 billion. AI-related demand for 300mm wafers is the dominant driver.</li>
</ul>


SUMCO delivered Q1 FY2026 sales of ¥101.4 billion, in line, an operating loss of ¥5.2 billion, an ordinary loss of ¥7.9 billion and a net loss of ¥8.4 billion.
YoY sales were basically flat while operating profit fell 11.1 billion yen, the vast majority of which, 6.1 billion yen, was attributable to higher depreciation from the prior CapEx cycle
Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance is ¥112 billion, up ¥10.6 billion sequentially, with the operating loss narrowing to ¥2.5 billion. AI-related demand for 300mm wafers is the dominant driver.


SUMCO Q1 FY2026. Largely As Expected. Share Price Correction Underway, Also As Expected.

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM</li>
<li>TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.</li>
<li>2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM
TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.
2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility


Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

<ul>
<li>On May 5, 2026, GlobalWafers (6488.TW) reported Q1 2026 revenue of NT$13.98 billion, down 3.6% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2025’s NT$14.50 billion, and down 10.3% year-on-year from Q1 2025’s NT$15.60 billion.</li>
<li>Gross margin was 20.8%, a 4.9 percentage point sequential decline from Q4 2025’s 25.7%, driven by three distinct and largely non-recurring factors</li>
<li>GlobalWafers now provides simulated financials to show what the numbers would be if they <em><strong>hadn’t</strong></em> gone ahead with their expansion plans. Go figure!</li>
</ul>


On May 5, 2026, GlobalWafers (6488.TW) reported Q1 2026 revenue of NT$13.98 billion, down 3.6% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2025’s NT$14.50 billion, and down 10.3% year-on-year from Q1 2025’s NT$15.60 billion.
Gross margin was 20.8%, a 4.9 percentage point sequential decline from Q4 2025’s 25.7%, driven by three distinct and largely non-recurring factors
GlobalWafers now provides simulated financials to show what the numbers would be if they hadn’t gone ahead with their expansion plans. Go figure!


GlobalWafers Q1 2026. May Be Viewed As A Relatively Low Point In The Current Cycle !

Germany

Siltronic AG manufactures hyperpure silicon wafers. The Company offers products including non-polished and epitaxial coated wafers with different diameter sizes. Siltronic caters its products worldwide for use in computers, smartphones, flat-panel displays, navigation systems, automotive engine control systems, and many other applications.

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Siltronic AG (WAF GR)

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Silicon wafers area shipments declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023 while revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion. Q124 revenues will be down ~20%...

William Keating

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

GlobalWafers Q1 2026. May Be Viewed As A Relatively Low Point In The Current Cycle !

GlobalWafers now provides simulated financials to show what the numbers would be if they hadn’t gone ahead with their expansion plans. Go figure!

William Keating

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Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Silicon wafers area shipments declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023 while revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion. Q124 revenues will be down ~20%...

William Keating

SUMCO Q1 FY2026. Largely As Expected. Share Price Correction Underway, Also As Expected.

Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance is ¥112 billion, up ¥10.6 billion sequentially, with the operating loss narrowing to ¥2.5 billion. AI-related demand for...

William Keating

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

GlobalWafers Q1 2026. May Be Viewed As A Relatively Low Point In The Current Cycle !

GlobalWafers now provides simulated financials to show what the numbers would be if they hadn’t gone ahead with their expansion plans. Go figure!

William Keating