ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia plus value added commentary</li>
<li>This week includes insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synergy-grid-development-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23221:1" rel="noopener">Synergy Grid &amp; Development Philippines (SGP PM)</a> IPO, and Philippine Banks</li>
<li>There are also insights on Sea's Internet Economy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press (SPH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiki-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35014:1" rel="noopener">Tiki</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro,</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> </li>
</ul>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia plus value added commentary
This week includes insights on Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP),Synergy Grid &amp; Development Philippines (SGP PM) IPO, and Philippine Banks
There are also insights on Sea's Internet Economy, Singapore Press (SPH SP), Singtel (ST SP), Cisarua Mountain Dairy IPO, Tiki IPO, Siam Makro, and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>In light of the coordinated reopening movement in ASEAN that stems from the high vaccination rate and pent-up demand to restart cross border as well as similar policy in mind (live with COVID rather zero COVID policy), investors will find short notes on each stock related to the reopening theme. While the majority are long ideas, there is a short investment idea on the back of the normalizing freight rate. <br><br>
</div>
<div>The rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19 level or even higher as flows may start to come back to this region. </div>

In light of the coordinated reopening movement in ASEAN that stems from the high vaccination rate and pent-up demand to restart cross border as well as similar policy in mind (live with COVID rather zero COVID policy), investors will find short notes on each stock related to the reopening theme. While the majority are long ideas, there is a short investment idea on the back of the normalizing freight rate.   

The rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19 level or even higher as flows may start to come back to this region. 

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

RateGain Travel Technologies / Equity Bottom-Up

RateGain Travel Technologies (RATEGAIN IN)

<ul>
<li>RateGain closed FY26 with operating revenue of Rs.1,823.6 crore, up 69.4% year-on-year, powered by the November 2025 Sojern acquisition, even as reported net profit slipped to Rs.194.4 crore.</li>
<li>Sojern doubled RateGain's revenue base and made it the world's largest source of travel-intent data, but it also depressed near-term margins and reported profit through acquisition and integration costs.</li>
<li>With cost synergies, cross-sell across 13,000-plus customers and a stated 18-20% sustainable margin target, FY27 is the year that tests whether RateGain's scale converts into durable earnings power.</li>
</ul>


RateGain closed FY26 with operating revenue of Rs.1,823.6 crore, up 69.4% year-on-year, powered by the November 2025 Sojern acquisition, even as reported net profit slipped to Rs.194.4 crore.
Sojern doubled RateGain's revenue base and made it the world's largest source of travel-intent data, but it also depressed near-term margins and reported profit through acquisition and integration costs.
With cost synergies, cross-sell across 13,000-plus customers and a stated 18-20% sustainable margin target, FY27 is the year that tests whether RateGain's scale converts into durable earnings power.


RateGain Travel Technologies: The $1 Billion Ambition by One of the Largest SaaS Providers

<p>For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. </p>
</div>
<p>In this report, we identify that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>as winners while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>as losers. </p>

For investors who are not based in Singapore, the mini lockdown in Singapore has started again due to the sudden increase in the number of community cases which previously was relatively under control. Before one thinks that it is a too-harsh of a policy, the rate of the increase of unlinked community cases in Singapore is high. This matters a lot because every Singapore residents need to check in every establishment using either an Identification card, Trace Together app, or token which has proved to be very effective as for months, most of the COVID-19 cases can be traced and therefore allows the government to take the necessary actions. 

This time is different. Alongside the third wave that has hit India and Thailand, Singapore, too, is hit. The Singapore government's response to this is very much like the first lock-down (Circuit Breaker), that they minimize public interactions so that the number of community cases does not increase and provide them with the time to perform contact tracing thoroughly. 

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and Genting Singapore (GENS SP)as losers. 

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Macroeconomics

<p><em><strong>The FY2021 Budget is unequivocally contractionary, with the fiscal deficit likely to contract from 4.5% of GDP in FY2020 (our estimate) to 3% in FY2021, with the overall fiscal position (including Special Transfers and Net Investment Return Contributions) going from a 13% of GDP deficit in FY2020 to near-balance in FY2021. Although real GDP should rebound to 6% growth in 2021, the glut of supply in the the residential property sector is likely to depress prices as global liquidity conditions tighten this year. We recommend being Underweight Singapore, but with relatively de-leveraged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">SIA (SIA SP)</a> well positioned to benefit disproportionately in its sector. </strong></em></p><p>Apart from the 8.8% YoY increase in total government spending, the Budget for FY2021 was solidly contractionary, with the fiscal deficit (operating revenue minus operating &amp; development expenditure) projected to decline from an estimated 6% of GDP (S$29.45 billion) in FY2020 to 5.1% (S$25.7 billion) in FY2021. Given that the actual fiscal deficit in Apr-Dec 2020 was only S$12.39 billion, and government revenue grew 17.3% YoY in Oct-Dec 2020 (even with real GDP still down 2.4% YoY), we estimate that the deficit for FY2020 will eventually be only 4.5% of GDP (as the economy returns to YoY growth in the Jan-Mar 2021 quarter). And the deficit for FY2021 will likely be about 3% of GDP, as the economy grows 6% in 2021, boosting government revenue further. </p><p>The overall fiscal deficit (including the impact of Special Transfers and Net Investment Returns  Contributions) is officially projected to contract from 13% of GDP in FY2020 to 2.2% of GDP in FY2021, but we estimate that this overall balance will be largely balanced in FY2021. Given the extremely low base from March-December 2020 (except for manufacturing), real GDP should begin growing in the current quarter, and easily achieve 6% growth for all of 2021. Since tourist arrivals were near zero in 2Q 2020, they too will be "growing" YoY, although the pain in all tourism-related sectors will persist through 2021. So the FY2021 Budget focused on vaccination and further strengthening healthcare infrastructure, continued support to the aviation and tourism-related sectors, and incentives for employers to retain Singapore-resident employees. The latter has already borne results, with net employment of residents <em>increasing</em> slightly even in the 2020 recession; with many of the 195,900 foreigners laid off being obliged to leave Singapore (and hence its labour force) the unemployment rate moderated to 3.2% by 4Q 2020. </p><p>With a leaner work force, 2021 will see a strong productivity-led recovery (good for Singapore's main employers, MNCs and GLCs). The manufacturing rebound from 2020 will likely be sustained through 2021; but after this year's 6% real GDP growth, Singapore will return to its recent trend of 2.5-3% annual growth. With global liquidity conditions likely to turn less favourable, the glut of residential property is likely to exert some downward pressure on residential prices in 2021. We recommend staying Underweight Singapore. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">SIA (SIA SP)</a> is likely to be a winner from the fiscal measures: it has cut its workforce by 20%, will receive subsidies for the rest of its workforce until at least September 2021, and will have a relatively less leveraged balance sheet than its global peers when the carnage ends, and be well-positioned strategically to benefit disproportionately once the global tourism industry begins a genuine recovery. </p>

The FY2021 Budget is unequivocally contractionary, with the fiscal deficit likely to contract from 4.5% of GDP in FY2020 (our estimate) to 3% in FY2021, with the overall fiscal position (including Special Transfers and Net Investment Return Contributions) going from a 13% of GDP deficit in FY2020 to near-balance in FY2021. Although real GDP should rebound to 6% growth in 2021, the glut of supply in the the residential property sector is likely to depress prices as global liquidity conditions tighten this year. We recommend being Underweight Singapore, but with relatively de-leveraged SIA (SIA SP) well positioned to benefit disproportionately in its sector. Apart from the 8.8% YoY increase in total government spending, the Budget for FY2021 was solidly contractionary, with the fiscal deficit (operating revenue minus operating &amp; development expenditure) projected to decline from an estimated 6% of GDP (S$29.45 billion) in FY2020 to 5.1% (S$25.7 billion) in FY2021. Given that the actual fiscal deficit in Apr-Dec 2020 was only S$12.39 billion, and government revenue grew 17.3% YoY in Oct-Dec 2020 (even with real GDP still down 2.4% YoY), we estimate that the deficit for FY2020 will eventually be only 4.5% of GDP (as the economy returns to YoY growth in the Jan-Mar 2021 quarter). And the deficit for FY2021 will likely be about 3% of GDP, as the economy grows 6% in 2021, boosting government revenue further. The overall fiscal deficit (including the impact of Special Transfers and Net Investment Returns  Contributions) is officially projected to contract from 13% of GDP in FY2020 to 2.2% of GDP in FY2021, but we estimate that this overall balance will be largely balanced in FY2021. Given the extremely low base from March-December 2020 (except for manufacturing), real GDP should begin growing in the current quarter, and easily achieve 6% growth for all of 2021. Since tourist arrivals were near zero in 2Q 2020, they too will be "growing" YoY, although the pain in all tourism-related sectors will persist through 2021. So the FY2021 Budget focused on vaccination and further strengthening healthcare infrastructure, continued support to the aviation and tourism-related sectors, and incentives for employers to retain Singapore-resident employees. The latter has already borne results, with net employment of residents increasing slightly even in the 2020 recession; with many of the 195,900 foreigners laid off being obliged to leave Singapore (and hence its labour force) the unemployment rate moderated to 3.2% by 4Q 2020. With a leaner work force, 2021 will see a strong productivity-led recovery (good for Singapore's main employers, MNCs and GLCs). The manufacturing rebound from 2020 will likely be sustained through 2021; but after this year's 6% real GDP growth, Singapore will return to its recent trend of 2.5-3% annual growth. With global liquidity conditions likely to turn less favourable, the glut of residential property is likely to exert some downward pressure on residential prices in 2021. We recommend staying Underweight Singapore. SIA (SIA SP) is likely to be a winner from the fiscal measures: it has cut its workforce by 20%, will receive subsidies for the rest of its workforce until at least September 2021, and will have a relatively less leveraged balance sheet than its global peers when the carnage ends, and be well-positioned strategically to benefit disproportionately once the global tourism industry begins a genuine recovery. 

Singapore Budgets for a Return to Normalcy Outside the Key Travel-Related Sectors

Singapore

Singapore Airlines is the flag carrier of Singapore, offering full-service international passenger and cargo air transportation. It operates a dual-brand strategy with its premium services and the low-cost carrier Scoot, serving numerous destinations globally. The company is headquartered in Airline House, Changi, Singapore, and was incorporated in 1972.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot

Rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19...

Henry Soediarko

RateGain Travel Technologies: The $1 Billion Ambition by One of the Largest SaaS Providers

RateGain's FY26 revenue surged 69.4% thanks to Sojern acquisition, but net profit dipped; FY27 will test if scale leads to sustainable earnings.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)...

Henry Soediarko

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot

Rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19...

Henry Soediarko

RateGain Travel Technologies: The $1 Billion Ambition by One of the Largest SaaS Providers

​RateGain's FY26 revenue surged 69.4% thanks to Sojern acquisition, but net profit dipped; FY27 will test if scale leads to sustainable earnings.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Singapore Mini Lockdown: Winners and Losers

In this report, we identify that Sheng Siong (SSG SP) , Sea Ltd (SE US) and Singapore Post (SPOST SP)as winners while Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)...

Henry Soediarko

Singapore Budgets for a Return to Normalcy Outside the Key Travel-Related Sectors

Despite an 8.8% YoY increase in total spending, the fiscal impulse will be contractionary in FY2021. Real GDP will grow 6%, but stay Underweight,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

RateGain's FY26 revenue surged 69.4% thanks to Sojern acquisition, but net profit dipped; FY27 will test if scale leads to sustainable earnings.