ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia plus value added commentary</li>
<li>This week includes insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synergy-grid-development-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23221:1" rel="noopener">Synergy Grid &amp; Development Philippines (SGP PM)</a> IPO, and Philippine Banks</li>
<li>There are also insights on Sea's Internet Economy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press (SPH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiki-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35014:1" rel="noopener">Tiki</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-makro-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">Siam Makro,</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> </li>
</ul>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia plus value added commentary
This week includes insights on Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP),Synergy Grid &amp; Development Philippines (SGP PM) IPO, and Philippine Banks
There are also insights on Sea's Internet Economy, Singapore Press (SPH SP), Singtel (ST SP), Cisarua Mountain Dairy IPO, Tiki IPO, Siam Makro, and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As vaccination rate has gradually inched up higher and the Singapore government has taken a bold step to re-open the economy including bringing back foreign talents leading to a higher population and, therefore, higher revenue for public transport services of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> , Comfordelgro stock looks quite promising. </p>
<p>Comfortdelgro's share price has underperformed the Singapore national carrier by a wide margin when the latter was trading at below book value. Now that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a> is trading at book value, there may not be much short-term upside left, and even if there is, it means its PER will be quite high which will make Comfortdelgro (at 24x PER) looks relatively cheaper. </p>

As vaccination rate has gradually inched up higher and the Singapore government has taken a bold step to re-open the economy including bringing back foreign talents leading to a higher population and, therefore, higher revenue for public transport services of Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) , Comfordelgro stock looks quite promising. 
Comfortdelgro's share price has underperformed the Singapore national carrier by a wide margin when the latter was trading at below book value. Now that Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) is trading at book value, there may not be much short-term upside left, and even if there is, it means its PER will be quite high which will make Comfortdelgro (at 24x PER) looks relatively cheaper. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>In light of the coordinated reopening movement in ASEAN that stems from the high vaccination rate and pent-up demand to restart cross border as well as similar policy in mind (live with COVID rather zero COVID policy), investors will find short notes on each stock related to the reopening theme. While the majority are long ideas, there is a short investment idea on the back of the normalizing freight rate. <br><br>
</div>
<div>The rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19 level or even higher as flows may start to come back to this region. </div>

In light of the coordinated reopening movement in ASEAN that stems from the high vaccination rate and pent-up demand to restart cross border as well as similar policy in mind (live with COVID rather zero COVID policy), investors will find short notes on each stock related to the reopening theme. While the majority are long ideas, there is a short investment idea on the back of the normalizing freight rate.   

The rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19 level or even higher as flows may start to come back to this region. 

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Air, Evergrande/Hopson, HomeCo/Aventus, Irongate, Shinsei Bank

Travis Lundy

<p>In the United States, as per FAA classifications, any airplane with a MTOW (Maximum Takeoff Weight) of 300,000 pounds (136,000kg) is classified as heavy".</p>
<p>The pilot will designate his plane as "heavy" when talking to the Aircraft Control Tower  when taking off and landing to make clear that the tower should maintain separation between it and other aircraft. Tonight's flight from Singapore to Frankfurt the pilot might say "Tower, this is Singapore 26 Heavy..."</p>
<p>The issue is that the larger the airplane, and the slower it is going, the more 'wake turbulence" is created. That "wake turbulence" primarily comes from two sources. The first is the "jet wash" (which is the moving air coming out of jet engines - it is chaotic, and of short duration) made famous for many in the movie Top Gun.  The second is "wingtip vortices" where as the wing is generating lift, air flows over the wing in a regular pattern, and at the wingtips and other points, it swirls. This is highly regular, stable, and actually will last for minutes. This is the more dangerous, despite its stability. It is most easily seen in the rain or in super high humidity environments.</p>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/236/646/original/wingtip+turbulence+gig.gif?1634795021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="236646"></figure>
</section>
<p>Tower is supposed to give time between planes so as the one coming after avoids the residual turbulence which may exist.</p>
<p>After the big plane does the big thing, you avoid the area. </p>
<p>When covid-19 suddenly hit travel in early 2020, airlines around the world were reasonably quick to reduce capacity, and costs, and to raise equity to get through what was going to be a lean period. Singapore Air raised S$8.8bn in summer of 2020, and promised a possible raise of another S$6.2bn in summer of 2021. It ended up raising that in June as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-rights-mcbs-s-6-2bn-of-capital-suck" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51906" rel="noopener">Singapore Air Rights MCBs - S$6.2bn of Capital Suck</a>.</p>
<p>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-air-the-rights-distribution-vol-is-your-friend" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39991" rel="noopener">Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend</a> last year, the Rights Shares and Rights Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCBs) significantly diluted common shareholders so even if there was a V-shaped recovery in business prospects, there would not be a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share. And that was the best case. </p>
<p>The worst case was worse. </p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>

In the United States, as per FAA classifications, any airplane with a MTOW (Maximum Takeoff Weight) of 300,000 pounds (136,000kg) is classified as heavy".
The pilot will designate his plane as "heavy" when talking to the Aircraft Control Tower  when taking off and landing to make clear that the tower should maintain separation between it and other aircraft. Tonight's flight from Singapore to Frankfurt the pilot might say "Tower, this is Singapore 26 Heavy..."
The issue is that the larger the airplane, and the slower it is going, the more 'wake turbulence" is created. That "wake turbulence" primarily comes from two sources. The first is the "jet wash" (which is the moving air coming out of jet engines - it is chaotic, and of short duration) made famous for many in the movie Top Gun.  The second is "wingtip vortices" where as the wing is generating lift, air flows over the wing in a regular pattern, and at the wingtips and other points, it swirls. This is highly regular, stable, and actually will last for minutes. This is the more dangerous, despite its stability. It is most easily seen in the rain or in super high humidity environments.



Tower is supposed to give time between planes so as the one coming after avoids the residual turbulence which may exist.
After the big plane does the big thing, you avoid the area. 
When covid-19 suddenly hit travel in early 2020, airlines around the world were reasonably quick to reduce capacity, and costs, and to raise equity to get through what was going to be a lean period. Singapore Air raised S$8.8bn in summer of 2020, and promised a possible raise of another S$6.2bn in summer of 2021. It ended up raising that in June as discussed in Singapore Air Rights MCBs - S$6.2bn of Capital Suck.
As discussed in Singapore Air - The Rights Distribution - Vol Is Your Friend last year, the Rights Shares and Rights Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCBs) significantly diluted common shareholders so even if there was a V-shaped recovery in business prospects, there would not be a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share. And that was the best case. 
The worst case was worse. 
More below the fold. 

Singapore

Singapore Airlines Limited provides air transportation, engineering, pilot training, air charter, and tour wholesaling services. The Company's airline operation covers Asia, Europe, the Americas, South West Pacific, and Africa.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Matahari Dept Store, Cimory IPO, and Philippine Banks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

Comfortdelgro (CD): March Forward

Comfortdelgro's share price has underperformed the Singapore national carrier by a wide margin when the latter was trading at below book value.

Henry Soediarko

ASEAN Reopening: Tourism and Transport Reboot

Rebound in the travel and tourism-related names is about to hit an inflection point that could torpedo the share price back into the pre-COVID-19...

Henry Soediarko

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Air, Evergrande/Hopson, HomeCo/Aventus, Irongate, Shinsei Bank

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Airlines - Still "Heavy"

Singapore Air Shares and MCBs will remain "heavy". There may not be that much wake turbulence but I would give them a wide berth.

Travis Lundy

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