Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&amp;L based on back tests. </li>
<li>In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha &amp; higher sharpe ratio.</li>
<li>Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, &amp; March based on range.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&amp;L based on back tests. 
In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha &amp; higher sharpe ratio.
Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, &amp; March based on range.


Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The top line of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.</li>
<li>Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. </li>
<li>Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. </li>
</ul>


The top line of HKEX (388 HK) is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.
Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. 
Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. 


HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> outlook has been withering for some time, and new data on property transactions, shows that this remains weak.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> in a less volatile geopolitical financial center, has a much lower market capitalization while its earnings outlook is far stronger.</li>
<li>Two major differences between these two entities is their ROE and ROA, although the former may be more relevant. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> has an ROE that is nearly 50% higher. </li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) outlook has been withering for some time, and new data on property transactions, shows that this remains weak.

SGX (SGX SP) in a less volatile geopolitical financial center, has a much lower market capitalization while its earnings outlook is far stronger.
Two major differences between these two entities is their ROE and ROA, although the former may be more relevant. SGX (SGX SP) has an ROE that is nearly 50% higher. 


HKEX - Worsening Property Transactions, Underscores Ailments for Hong Kong

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank</a> finally ended Thailand's long dry spell, although it wasn't a happy ending.</li>
<li>For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Thai Credit Bank finally ended Thailand's long dry spell, although it wasn't a happy ending.
For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.


ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

<ul>
<li>Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane. </li>
<li>The company's effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute. </li>
<li>Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?</li>
</ul>


Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane. 
The company's effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute. 
Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?


Hong Kong Exchanges - Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

Singapore

Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses.  The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.

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SGX (SGX SP)

Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Iron ore futures prices exhibit seasonality. Harnessing seasonality using SGX Iron Ore Futures delivers a success rate of 63% (positive P&L in 57...

Mint Finance

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

HKEX - Worsening Property Transactions, Underscores Ailments for Hong Kong

Results for HKEX are just out and there are not good at all, across many key line items, and with average daily trading volume with EBITDA at -20% YoY

Daniel Tabbush

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Exchanges - Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

Hong Kong Exchanges shows that much of its profit was due to rising rates on it cash deposits, and this can reverse. Lower taxation inflates...

Daniel Tabbush

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