Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)</a> reported strong 2022 results, with annual revenue exceeding RMB550B and net profit achieving 10% YoY growth. Growth was driven by pharmaceutical distribution business.</li>
<li>EPS increased 10% YoY to RMB2.73, ahead of consensus of RMB2.64. The company has increased its final dividend to RMB0.82 per share from RMB0.75 per share in the prior year.</li>
<li>With favorable industry tailwind and China reopening, consensus expects Sinopharm to report double-digit revenue and EPS growth through 2025.</li>
</ul>



Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) reported strong 2022 results, with annual revenue exceeding RMB550B and net profit achieving 10% YoY growth. Growth was driven by pharmaceutical distribution business.
EPS increased 10% YoY to RMB2.73, ahead of consensus of RMB2.64. The company has increased its final dividend to RMB0.82 per share from RMB0.75 per share in the prior year.
With favorable industry tailwind and China reopening, consensus expects Sinopharm to report double-digit revenue and EPS growth through 2025.


Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Strong 2022 Results; Double-Digit Top and Bottom-Line Growth to Continue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Sipai Health Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sipai-health-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36662:1" rel="noopener">Sipai Health Technology (314 HK)</a></strong>, a Chinese digital healthcare platform backed by <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a></strong> continues to eke out new highs. </li>
<li>Sipai closed up 34% on its debut two days before Xmas last year, and is currently up 74% on its IPO price of HK$18.60.</li>
<li>The company is loss-making. However, FY22 financials showed those losses continue to fall. </li>
</ul>



Sipai Health Technology (314 HK), a Chinese digital healthcare platform backed by Tencent (700 HK) continues to eke out new highs. 
Sipai closed up 34% on its debut two days before Xmas last year, and is currently up 74% on its IPO price of HK$18.60.
The company is loss-making. However, FY22 financials showed those losses continue to fall. 


Sipai Health Technology: Hidden Benefits, Not-So-Hidden Risks

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Thirteen important departments formulated the “Work Plan for Supporting the High-quality Development of State-owned Enterprise (SOE)-run Medical Institutions”(the “Work Plan”), which reflects a significant change in government's attitude towards SOE-run hospitals.</li>
<li>The core goal of “Work Plan” is to make public medical system bigger and stronger.Changes will occur with the participation of central enterprises. It's time to change the thinking mode.</li>
<li>Government-Run hospitals/SOE-run hospitals are still the main force of China's medical service market. Their status will be higher than that of private hospitals, whose development space would be further squeezed.</li>
</ul>


Thirteen important departments formulated the “Work Plan for Supporting the High-quality Development of State-owned Enterprise (SOE)-run Medical Institutions”(the “Work Plan”), which reflects a significant change in government's attitude towards SOE-run hospitals.
The core goal of “Work Plan” is to make public medical system bigger and stronger.Changes will occur with the participation of central enterprises. It's time to change the thinking mode.
Government-Run hospitals/SOE-run hospitals are still the main force of China's medical service market. Their status will be higher than that of private hospitals, whose development space would be further squeezed.


Reform in China's Medical Service Industry: SOE-Run Hospitals Usher in a Critical Turning Point

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 12 January.</li>
<li>There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.

PEXA Group (PXA AU) replaces Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 12 January.
There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

China

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd is a pharmacy distribution company. The Company also owns several pharmacy enterprise groups in different industries such as logistics, retail stores, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical testing.

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Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Strong 2022 Results; Double-Digit Top and Bottom-Line Growth to Continue

Sinopharm reported 6% revenue and 10% EPS growth in 2022, driven by pharmaceutical distribution business. Favorable industry tailwind and China...

Tina Banerjee

Sipai Health Technology: Hidden Benefits, Not-So-Hidden Risks

Only ~1.5% of total issued shares are free to trade following the global. I would be cautious investing here given the vast overhang from the IPO...

David Blennerhassett

Reform in China's Medical Service Industry: SOE-Run Hospitals Usher in a Critical Turning Point

Government's attitude towards SOE-run hospitals has a significant change as new policy is released,aiming to make public medical system bigger...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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