Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The prior base case was a late October 3Q earnings buyback announcement, followed by a 2~2.5% SO repurchase over six months, but that view is starting to lose traction.</li>
<li>Hynix may avoid it due to cash burn risks amid memory pivot concerns, meaning the expected buyback announcement may not happen.</li>
<li>Hynix may use ADR arb flows to support local shares, with KRW 1.46 million to KRW 1.50 million viewed as the trigger zone at around 2.0x forward PBR.</li>
</ul>


The prior base case was a late October 3Q earnings buyback announcement, followed by a 2~2.5% SO repurchase over six months, but that view is starting to lose traction.
Hynix may avoid it due to cash burn risks amid memory pivot concerns, meaning the expected buyback announcement may not happen.
Hynix may use ADR arb flows to support local shares, with KRW 1.46 million to KRW 1.50 million viewed as the trigger zone at around 2.0x forward PBR.


Hynix ADR Conversion Pool Opening: The Only Realistic Path Forward

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The stock is driven by its ETFs, not earnings: realised vol ~1.4x hotter since the 27 May 2x-ETF launch, retail down ~70%, regulators tightening from 5 August.</li>
<li>We sit below consensus at ~KRW58tn Q2 operating profit vs ~KRW64tn street. A print the market calls a "miss" lands on our model and leaves Fair Value intact.</li>
<li>Reiterate BULLISH, Long SK Hynix. Top-quartile ROE at a median multiple, Nvidia's HBM4 lock de-risks demand, and 29 July results should resolve the ETF-driven drawdown upward.</li>
</ul>


The stock is driven by its ETFs, not earnings: realised vol ~1.4x hotter since the 27 May 2x-ETF launch, retail down ~70%, regulators tightening from 5 August.
We sit below consensus at ~KRW58tn Q2 operating profit vs ~KRW64tn street. A print the market calls a "miss" lands on our model and leaves Fair Value intact.
Reiterate BULLISH, Long SK Hynix. Top-quartile ROE at a median multiple, Nvidia's HBM4 lock de-risks demand, and 29 July results should resolve the ETF-driven drawdown upward.


SK HYNIX (000660KS, SKHY US): 29 July - Mark It, Circle It, Put in on Your Fridge

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> has lost 41% of its value since its peak 1 month ago, a pretty dramatic correction.</li>
<li>No need to state the obvious, 5 weeks down, the stock is ultra-oversold, it should rebound soon but the real question is:how far can the rebound rally go?
</li>
<li>According to our model the upcoming rebound rally is going to be a small rally. Usually this type of rebound pattern can see much lower prices after the 'bounce'.</li>
</ul>



SK Hynix (000660 KS) has lost 41% of its value since its peak 1 month ago, a pretty dramatic correction.
No need to state the obvious, 5 weeks down, the stock is ultra-oversold, it should rebound soon but the real question is:how far can the rebound rally go?

According to our model the upcoming rebound rally is going to be a small rally. Usually this type of rebound pattern can see much lower prices after the 'bounce'.


SK Hynix Tactical Outlook: Imminent Small Rally, And Then?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.</li>
<li>NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.</li>
<li>Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.</li>
</ul>


AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.
NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.
Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix saw AUM retreat from June highs, but investor interest remains substantial with net flows negative on only four out of 20 trading days.</li>
<li>Regulators are stepping in: Korea will triple minimum deposit requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 31 July, responding to the surge in AUM, heightened volatility and persistent inflows documented here.</li>
<li>The inverse ETF is up 64.2% month-to-date as SK hynix declined, yet experiences outflows. Across the segment, ETF flows and daily rebalancing remain relevant for underlying liquidity.</li>
</ul>


KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix saw AUM retreat from June highs, but investor interest remains substantial with net flows negative on only four out of 20 trading days.
Regulators are stepping in: Korea will triple minimum deposit requirements for single-stock leveraged ETFs from 31 July, responding to the surge in AUM, heightened volatility and persistent inflows documented here.
The inverse ETF is up 64.2% month-to-date as SK hynix declined, yet experiences outflows. Across the segment, ETF flows and daily rebalancing remain relevant for underlying liquidity.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules

South Korea

SK hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industries. The Company manufactures semiconductors such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (SKHY US)

Hynix ADR Conversion Pool Opening: The Only Realistic Path Forward

This post examines the key scenario that could lead to Hynix opening the ADR conversion pool and the potential implications for the stock and ADR...

Sanghyun Park

SK HYNIX (000660KS, SKHY US): 29 July - Mark It, Circle It, Put in on Your Fridge

Machines and retail are selling SK Hynix into its own earnings. We're below consensus but the "miss" hits our model, Nvidia locked the HBM, and...

Mo Aziz

SK Hynix Tactical Outlook: Imminent Small Rally, And Then?

SK Hynix has lost 41% of its value in a month, now ultra-oversold - a small rebound rally is imminent, but the question is: how far can it go?

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules

KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix see AUM dip but investor interest stays strong. Korea to triple deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs amid...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hynix ADR Conversion Pool Opening: The Only Realistic Path Forward

This post examines the key scenario that could lead to Hynix opening the ADR conversion pool and the potential implications for the stock and ADR...

Sanghyun Park

SK HYNIX (000660KS, SKHY US): 29 July - Mark It, Circle It, Put in on Your Fridge

Machines and retail are selling SK Hynix into its own earnings. We're below consensus but the "miss" hits our model, Nvidia locked the HBM, and...

Mo Aziz

SK Hynix Tactical Outlook: Imminent Small Rally, And Then?

​SK Hynix has lost 41% of its value in a month, now ultra-oversold - a small rebound rally is imminent, but the question is: how far can it go?

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

​AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Persistent Leveraged ETF Inflows Precede Tighter Rules

​KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix see AUM dip but investor interest stays strong. Korea to triple deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs amid...

Gaudenz Schneider

SK Hynix has lost 41% of its value in a month, now ultra-oversold - a small rebound rally is imminent, but the question is: how far can it go?

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

KRX-Listed 2x Long ETFs on SK hynix see AUM dip but investor interest stays strong. Korea to triple deposit requirements for leveraged ETFs amid...