Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hynix’s FSS engagement strongly signals a potential treasury buyback into ADR conversion.</li>
<li>Tight early conversion quotas could let Hynix capture capacity upfront, pressuring local shares and forcing ADR premium assumptions above TSMC’s 30% historical peak.</li>
<li>Need to price in upside beyond TSMC’s 30% peak, as Hynix could capture premium expansion early, creating a key risk for ADR premium trading setup.</li>
</ul>


Hynix’s FSS engagement strongly signals a potential treasury buyback into ADR conversion.
Tight early conversion quotas could let Hynix capture capacity upfront, pressuring local shares and forcing ADR premium assumptions above TSMC’s 30% historical peak.
Need to price in upside beyond TSMC’s 30% peak, as Hynix could capture premium expansion early, creating a key risk for ADR premium trading setup.


Newly Surfaced Risk to Hynix ADR Premium Trade

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.</li>
<li>EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).</li>
<li>This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. </li>
</ul>


In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.
EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).
This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. 


ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Samsung Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg published an article today that Samsung Electronics is in early discussions of a potential listing of ADRs in the U.S. </li>
<li>The number one reason why Samsung Electronics should list its shares in the U.S. is that this could reduce the valuation discount on the company relative to its global peers. </li>
<li>In terms of Samsung Electronics completing an ADR listing, I think the overall process could take about 2-3 years.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg published an article today that Samsung Electronics is in early discussions of a potential listing of ADRs in the U.S. 
The number one reason why Samsung Electronics should list its shares in the U.S. is that this could reduce the valuation discount on the company relative to its global peers. 
In terms of Samsung Electronics completing an ADR listing, I think the overall process could take about 2-3 years.


Top Five Reasons Why Samsung Electronics Should List Its Shares as ADRs in the U.S.

<ul>
<li>2Q price reset was inevitable, but Hynix’s early leak three weeks before earnings raises questions. The timing matters given significant memory multiple compression and potential strategic positioning.</li>
<li>Need a precise Hynix playbook as memory multiple compression persists. Focus on capturing ADR conversion headroom as a micro catalyst and assessing its role as a relative buffer versus peers.</li>
<li>KSD guidelines could come earlier than expected. Medium term, combine US passive flows with memory hedges. Watch Samsung utilization ramp and potential preferred discount compression.</li>
</ul>


2Q price reset was inevitable, but Hynix’s early leak three weeks before earnings raises questions. The timing matters given significant memory multiple compression and potential strategic positioning.
Need a precise Hynix playbook as memory multiple compression persists. Focus on capturing ADR conversion headroom as a micro catalyst and assessing its role as a relative buffer versus peers.
KSD guidelines could come earlier than expected. Medium term, combine US passive flows with memory hedges. Watch Samsung utilization ramp and potential preferred discount compression.


Story Behind Hynix 2Q Earnings Reset Leak

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Record -15.4% KRX plunge and a 20-minute KOSPI circuit breaker Monday vs. a milder ~9% ADR decline in New York — the size of the gap is itself the story.</li>
<li>Drivers: post-listing profit-taking, leveraged-ETF unwind, one bearish brokerage note, KRX-ADR arbitrage still settling, and a Middle East-driven risk-off tape — not a demand shock.</li>
<li>Fair Value unchanged at KRW 3,500,000 / US$212 (Bullish): HBM remains sold out into 2027, pricing power intact, and the stock now screens at ~6.1x 2026E P/E.</li>
</ul>


Record -15.4% KRX plunge and a 20-minute KOSPI circuit breaker Monday vs. a milder ~9% ADR decline in New York — the size of the gap is itself the story.
Drivers: post-listing profit-taking, leveraged-ETF unwind, one bearish brokerage note, KRX-ADR arbitrage still settling, and a Middle East-driven risk-off tape — not a demand shock.
Fair Value unchanged at KRW 3,500,000 / US$212 (Bullish): HBM remains sold out into 2027, pricing power intact, and the stock now screens at ~6.1x 2026E P/E.


SK Hynix (000660 KS | SKHY US): Nosebleed Monday, Not a Bloodbath — Fundamentals Say Stay Bullish

South Korea

SK hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industries. The Company manufactures semiconductors such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (SKHY US)

Newly Surfaced Risk to Hynix ADR Premium Trade

This post flags a newly surfaced risk to the Hynix ADR premium hunting thesis and examines its potential implications for the timing, structure,...

Sanghyun Park

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Nicolas Baratte

Top Five Reasons Why Samsung Electronics Should List Its Shares as ADRs in the U.S.

Bloomberg published an article today that Samsung Electronics is in early discussions of a potential listing of ADRs in the U.S.

Douglas Kim

Story Behind Hynix 2Q Earnings Reset Leak

This post takes a closer look at the Hynix 2Q earnings reset leak dynamics, focusing on the underlying catalysts, market reaction, and potential...

Sanghyun Park

SK Hynix (000660 KS | SKHY US): Nosebleed Monday, Not a Bloodbath — Fundamentals Say Stay Bullish

Korean stock market sees sharp plunge due to various factors, but fair value remains bullish with strong pricing power.

Mo Aziz

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Newly Surfaced Risk to Hynix ADR Premium Trade

This post flags a newly surfaced risk to the Hynix ADR premium hunting thesis and examines its potential implications for the timing, structure,...

Sanghyun Park

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

​ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Nicolas Baratte

Top Five Reasons Why Samsung Electronics Should List Its Shares as ADRs in the U.S.

Bloomberg published an article today that Samsung Electronics is in early discussions of a potential listing of ADRs in the U.S.

Douglas Kim

Story Behind Hynix 2Q Earnings Reset Leak

This post takes a closer look at the Hynix 2Q earnings reset leak dynamics, focusing on the underlying catalysts, market reaction, and potential...

Sanghyun Park

SK Hynix (000660 KS | SKHY US): Nosebleed Monday, Not a Bloodbath — Fundamentals Say Stay Bullish

​Korean stock market sees sharp plunge due to various factors, but fair value remains bullish with strong pricing power.

Mo Aziz

ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Korean stock market sees sharp plunge due to various factors, but fair value remains bullish with strong pricing power.