New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) reported a disappointing 1H25 result, with underlying EBITDA down -23% on the prior year.</li><li>Cyclical challenges are weighing on average visitor spend, while ongoing structural and regulatory issues have led SKC to add cost in to improve compliance and risk management capabilities, and fund the transformation project in Adelaide.</li><li>The combination of these factors is amplifying operational deleverage. Moreover, the introduction of mandatory carded play (MCP) in NZ in July 2025 suggests top-line pressures get worse before they get better. </li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) reported a disappointing 1H25 result, with underlying EBITDA down -23% on the prior year.Cyclical challenges are weighing on average visitor spend, while ongoing structural and regulatory issues have led SKC to add cost in to improve compliance and risk management capabilities, and fund the transformation project in Adelaide.The combination of these factors is amplifying operational deleverage. Moreover, the introduction of mandatory carded play (MCP) in NZ in July 2025 suggests top-line pressures get worse before they get better. 

SkyCity - 1H25 Result—Dealt a Costly Hand

<ul><li>Sky TV (SKT) is set to report its 1H25 result on Friday, 21 February.</li><li>We expect it to be soft given the impact of several negative headwinds, notably: (1) its focus on delivering a successful satellite migration, (2) a soft economic backdrop, and (3) costs skewed to 1H.</li><li>Our focus areas will be: (1) Sky box subscriber losses, (2) streaming revenue, and (3) guidance—with the likelihood of sizable satellite migration and other costs to be removed to reach underlying earnings. </li></ul>

Sky TV (SKT) is set to report its 1H25 result on Friday, 21 February.We expect it to be soft given the impact of several negative headwinds, notably: (1) its focus on delivering a successful satellite migration, (2) a soft economic backdrop, and (3) costs skewed to 1H.Our focus areas will be: (1) Sky box subscriber losses, (2) streaming revenue, and (3) guidance—with the likelihood of sizable satellite migration and other costs to be removed to reach underlying earnings. 

Sky TV - 1H25 Preview—May Make for Bad Viewing

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) reports its 1H25 result on 20 February 2024, we expect a material decline in its underlying NPAT on the prior year.</li><li>In tandem with structural issues, cyclical challenges continue to weigh on operational performance, being: (1) increased compliance costs, (2) mandatory carded play implementation, and (3) management's desire to strengthen the balance sheet.</li><li>We expect a revised FY25 guidance range due to the delay of the majority of NZICC pre-opening costs (c.NZ$11m) into FY26.</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) reports its 1H25 result on 20 February 2024, we expect a material decline in its underlying NPAT on the prior year.In tandem with structural issues, cyclical challenges continue to weigh on operational performance, being: (1) increased compliance costs, (2) mandatory carded play implementation, and (3) management's desire to strengthen the balance sheet.We expect a revised FY25 guidance range due to the delay of the majority of NZICC pre-opening costs (c.NZ$11m) into FY26.

SkyCity - 1H25 Preview—Playing the Cards It's Dealt

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS, Vicinity Centres Re.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 31st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS, Vicinity Centres Re.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 31st): CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 26th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Washington H Soul Pattinson&amp;Co, Northern Star Resources, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Goodman, TPG Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 26th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Washington H Soul Pattinson&amp;Co, Northern Star Resources, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Goodman, TPG Telecom.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 26th): Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co, Northern Star Resources

New Zealand

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Ltd. provides gaming and casino services. The Company offers various casinos accompanied with various bars, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. SKYCITY Entertainment Group offers services in Australia and New Zealand.

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Skycity Entertainment (SKC NZ)

SkyCity - 1H25 Result—Dealt a Costly Hand

We continue to view the risks/reward as negative, with SKC trading at a ~15x one-year forward PE on our revised estimates, a -12% discount to...

Forsyth Barr

Sky TV - 1H25 Preview—May Make for Bad Viewing

Sky TV (SKT) is set to report its 1H25 result on Friday, 21 February. We expect it to be soft given the impact of several negative headwinds

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity - 1H25 Preview—Playing the Cards It's Dealt

SkyCity (SKC) reports its 1H25 result on 20 February 2024, we expect a material decline in its underlying NPAT on the prior year.

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 31st): CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, Mineral Resources, Bluescope Steel, ALS,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 26th): Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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