New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) has agreed to pay an A$21m fine in response to the South Australian Government’s independent review of the Adelaide Casino.</li><li>This was meaningfully below both the maximum fine (A$75m) and our estimate (A$50m paid in full in FY27), while the instalment structure is also favourable from a cash flow perspective (three payments of A$7m over three years).</li><li>More importantly, this outcome marks a major step towards closing out the key regulatory overhangs that have weighed on the Adelaide business.</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) has agreed to pay an A$21m fine in response to the South Australian Government’s independent review of the Adelaide Casino.This was meaningfully below both the maximum fine (A$75m) and our estimate (A$50m paid in full in FY27), while the instalment structure is also favourable from a cash flow perspective (three payments of A$7m over three years).More importantly, this outcome marks a major step towards closing out the key regulatory overhangs that have weighed on the Adelaide business.

SkyCity Fine-Ally a Resolution for Adelaide

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) has reached a non-binding heads of agreement (HoA) to resolve all outstanding regulatory matters arising from the South Australian Government’s Independent Review of the Adelaide Casino and the findings of the Brian Martin Report.</li><li>It has agreed to pay a A$21m fine, which is a better outcome for SKC than both the potential maximum fine (up to A$75m) and our previous assumption (A$50m fine payable in FY26).</li><li>The total fine is to be paid in three A$7m instalments, the first within 28 days of the execution of the settlement deed, the second one year later (expected July 2027), and the final instalment two years after the first payment (expected July 2028).</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) has reached a non-binding heads of agreement (HoA) to resolve all outstanding regulatory matters arising from the South Australian Government’s Independent Review of the Adelaide Casino and the findings of the Brian Martin Report.It has agreed to pay a A$21m fine, which is a better outcome for SKC than both the potential maximum fine (up to A$75m) and our previous assumption (A$50m fine payable in FY26).The total fine is to be paid in three A$7m instalments, the first within 28 days of the execution of the settlement deed, the second one year later (expected July 2027), and the final instalment two years after the first payment (expected July 2028).

SkyCity (SKC.NZ) - Adelaide Independent Review Outcome

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) should be a highly cash-generative business, though its track record over the past decade has been underwhelming.</li><li>However, the phase of elevated growth capex is now over, and despite significant industry changes, we think SKC can return to delivering strong free cash flow (FCF).</li><li>With this level of FCF generation, we estimate that SKC could support a double-digit cash dividend yield in FY28, while retaining significant residual FCF for other capital initiatives.</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) should be a highly cash-generative business, though its track record over the past decade has been underwhelming.However, the phase of elevated growth capex is now over, and despite significant industry changes, we think SKC can return to delivering strong free cash flow (FCF).With this level of FCF generation, we estimate that SKC could support a double-digit cash dividend yield in FY28, while retaining significant residual FCF for other capital initiatives.

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

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<ul><li>Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile, broadband and IT/cloud services (“Digital Services”) across New Zealand.</li><li>Spark already ran the obvious arbitrage: between 2022 and early 2026 it sold 100% of its mobile towers and 75% of its data-centre business to infrastructure buyers at 30-34x and up to 30.8x EBITDA respectively</li><li>Banking roughly NZ$1.98bn — rich prices for passive assets a generalist telecom market was never going to pay for the whole group.</li></ul>

Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile, broadband and IT/cloud services (“Digital Services”) across New Zealand.Spark already ran the obvious arbitrage: between 2022 and early 2026 it sold 100% of its mobile towers and 75% of its data-centre business to infrastructure buyers at 30-34x and up to 30.8x EBITDA respectivelyBanking roughly NZ$1.98bn — rich prices for passive assets a generalist telecom market was never going to pay for the whole group.

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) received notice of proceedings for a class action to test the lawfulness of its online gaming operations.</li><li>From FY20 to FY25, SKC Online generated ~NZ$65m of gaming revenue (excl. GST).</li><li>SkyCity Online was established in August 2019 and was operated by Silvereye Entertainment, a Malta-based entity with a Malta gaming licence.</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) received notice of proceedings for a class action to test the lawfulness of its online gaming operations.From FY20 to FY25, SKC Online generated ~NZ$65m of gaming revenue (excl. GST).SkyCity Online was established in August 2019 and was operated by Silvereye Entertainment, a Malta-based entity with a Malta gaming licence.

New Zealand

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Ltd. provides gaming and casino services. The Company offers various casinos accompanied with various bars, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. SKYCITY Entertainment Group offers services in Australia and New Zealand.

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Skycity Entertainment (SKC NZ)

SkyCity Fine-Ally a Resolution for Adelaide

SkyCity (SKC) has agreed to pay an A$21m fine in response to the South Australian Government’s independent review of the Adelaide Casino. This was...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity (SKC.NZ) - Adelaide Independent Review Outcome

SkyCity (SKC) has reached a non-binding heads of agreement (HoA) to resolve all outstanding regulatory matters arising from the South Australian...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity Show Me The Money

SkyCity (SKC) should be a highly cash-generative business, though its track record over the past decade has been underwhelming. However, the phase...

Forsyth Barr

Monday Delight: 12/10/2026

Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile,...

Contrarian Cashflows

SkyCity Lawyers Ante Up For Online

SkyCity Online was established in August 2019 and was operated by Silvereye Entertainment, a Malta-based entity with a Malta gaming licence.

Forsyth Barr

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