New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SkyCity reported a soft 1H26 result versus market expectations, but left FY26 EBITDA guidance unchanged, signalling a strong pickup in earnings in the second half.</li><li>Whilst the earnings miss is disappointing, we emphasise that Auckland is the key earnings and value driver in this business (&gt;75% of pre-corporate cost EBITDA), and it delivered EBITDA +5%/+11% ahead of our and consensus expectations respectively.</li><li>SKC reiterated its commitment to monetise at least NZ$200m of assets by February 2027, with 99 Albert Street on the market.</li></ul>

SkyCity reported a soft 1H26 result versus market expectations, but left FY26 EBITDA guidance unchanged, signalling a strong pickup in earnings in the second half.Whilst the earnings miss is disappointing, we emphasise that Auckland is the key earnings and value driver in this business (&gt;75% of pre-corporate cost EBITDA), and it delivered EBITDA +5%/+11% ahead of our and consensus expectations respectively.SKC reiterated its commitment to monetise at least NZ$200m of assets by February 2027, with 99 Albert Street on the market.

SkyCity 1H26 Result—Don't Sweat The Small Blinds

<ul><li>We think 2026 will be an incrementally more positive year for SkyCity Entertainment Group (SKC).</li><li>This earnings downgrade cycle has slowed over the last three months, and we expect FY26 to represent a trough in earnings, albeit with a second half skew (we estimate 1H26 EBITDA: NZ$84m, 2H26: NZ$94m).</li><li>Another near-term catalyst is the potential monetisation of a property asset to delever the balance sheet and resume dividend payments.</li></ul>

We think 2026 will be an incrementally more positive year for SkyCity Entertainment Group (SKC).This earnings downgrade cycle has slowed over the last three months, and we expect FY26 to represent a trough in earnings, albeit with a second half skew (we estimate 1H26 EBITDA: NZ$84m, 2H26: NZ$94m).Another near-term catalyst is the potential monetisation of a property asset to delever the balance sheet and resume dividend payments.

<ul><li>SkyCity (SKC) reaffirmed its FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of NZ$190m–NZ$210m at its 2025 AGM.</li><li>We forecast FY26 underlying EBITDA of NZ$198m, in the middle of its FY26 guidance range but +4% ahead of consensus.</li><li>SKC is targeting NZ$200m of asset sales, including the Auckland carpark, 99 Albert Street, and other commercial buildings, provided the right price can be achieved.</li></ul>

SkyCity (SKC) reaffirmed its FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of NZ$190m–NZ$210m at its 2025 AGM.We forecast FY26 underlying EBITDA of NZ$198m, in the middle of its FY26 guidance range but +4% ahead of consensus.SKC is targeting NZ$200m of asset sales, including the Auckland carpark, 99 Albert Street, and other commercial buildings, provided the right price can be achieved.

<ul><li>At ~0.5x book value, SkyCity (SKC) is being priced as a perpetual value destroyer.</li><li>Our valuation is underpinned by 29% terminal EBITDA margin and 8% ROIC assumptions, with our NZ$1.10 target price, -20% below book value.</li><li>SKC needs to show that its earnings downgrade cycle is ending and that its earnings potential remains intact before an anticipated rerating takes place.</li></ul>

At ~0.5x book value, SkyCity (SKC) is being priced as a perpetual value destroyer.Our valuation is underpinned by 29% terminal EBITDA margin and 8% ROIC assumptions, with our NZ$1.10 target price, -20% below book value.SKC needs to show that its earnings downgrade cycle is ending and that its earnings potential remains intact before an anticipated rerating takes place.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

New Zealand

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Ltd. provides gaming and casino services. The Company offers various casinos accompanied with various bars, hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. SKYCITY Entertainment Group offers services in Australia and New Zealand.

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Skycity Entertainment (SKC NZ)

SkyCity 1H26 Result—Don't Sweat The Small Blinds

SkyCity reported a soft 1H26 result versus market expectations, but left FY26 EBITDA guidance unchanged, signalling a strong pickup in earnings in...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity Counting Chips

We think 2026 will be an incrementally more positive year for SkyCity Entertainment Group (SKC).This earnings downgrade cycle has slowed over the...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity Breaking Its Losing Streak

SKC is targeting NZ$200m of asset sales, including the Auckland carpark, 99 Albert Street, and other commercial buildings, provided the right price...

Forsyth Barr

SkyCity Playing by the Book

Our valuation is underpinned by 29% terminal EBITDA margin and 8% ROIC assumptions, with our NZ$1.10 target price, -20% below book value.

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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