Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom (4917 JP)</a>. KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.</li>
<li>Panama’s Supreme Court dings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a>'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.</li>
</ul>


Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for Mandom (4917 JP). KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.
Panama’s Supreme Court dings CK Hutchison (1 HK)'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - kinda surprising.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iress-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15342:1" rel="noopener">Iress  (IRE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group (751 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - kinda surprising.
Key updates/news also took place on: Bluescope Steel (BSL AU), Iress  (IRE AU), Skyworth Group (751 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), and Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP).



Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index changes.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 9 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) and 17 adds/ 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
Some of the index changes will also have same way flows from trackers of other global and sector indices on the same day.
The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices and performance has been especially strong for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index changes.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.</li>
<li>The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

Australia

SmartGroup Corp Ltd. is an Australian outsourced salary packaging company within the health, not-for-profit, State and Federal Government departments and corporate sectors nationwide.

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Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes

There are 53 stocks that are adds/deletes across the ASX family of indices. There are some surprises and big flow/impact across the changes. Adds...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes

There are 53 stocks that are adds/deletes across the ASX family of indices. There are some surprises and big flow/impact across the changes. Adds...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2025): New Methodology & The Many Changes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated