Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is seeing solid short-term momentum, bolstered by asset sales and AI-led strategic narratives. Key triggers to monitor: deleveraging moves, AI investment updates, and broader macro sentiment.</li>
<li>The stock is very overbought according to our WEEKLY model, there could be a pullback soon.</li>
<li>Another perspective: what if this is just a bold rebound rally—and the next move takes SoftBank back down toward the 5,000 level? Just an hypothesis worth considering.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) is seeing solid short-term momentum, bolstered by asset sales and AI-led strategic narratives. Key triggers to monitor: deleveraging moves, AI investment updates, and broader macro sentiment.
The stock is very overbought according to our WEEKLY model, there could be a pullback soon.
Another perspective: what if this is just a bold rebound rally—and the next move takes SoftBank back down toward the 5,000 level? Just an hypothesis worth considering.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Is Flying High, But It May Be Time to Take Some Off the Table

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises <em>and</em> outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Private Capital Markets

Revolut Limited / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn</li>
<li>We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank</li>
<li>Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence</li>
</ul>


Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn
We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank
Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence


Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value</li>
<li>We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2</li>
<li>We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation</li>
</ul>


There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value
We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2
We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

SoftBank (9984 JP) Is Flying High, But It May Be Time to Take Some Off the Table

Softbank Group (9984 JP) shows strong short-term momentum, but may face a pullback soon. Several catalysts may trigger it - our view is based...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SoftBank (9984 JP) Is Flying High, But It May Be Time to Take Some Off the Table

​Softbank Group (9984 JP) shows strong short-term momentum, but may face a pullback soon. Several catalysts may trigger it - our view is based...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

​Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

​SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

Softbank Group (9984 JP) shows strong short-term momentum, but may face a pullback soon. Several catalysts may trigger it - our view is based...

Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...