Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freebit-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4966:1" rel="noopener">Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP)</a> announced it would launch a Tender Offer next Monday to buy out minorities in 60.9%-owned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-prize-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6115:1" rel="noopener">Giga Prize (3830 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The multiple is not terribly impressive. It could be better. But they only need 5.8% of the 39.1% they do not own to get this over the hump.</li>
<li>Synergies are clear. They are expected. They are not priced in the valuation. This is disappointing. Again.</li>
</ul>


Today, Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP) announced it would launch a Tender Offer next Monday to buy out minorities in 60.9%-owned Giga Prize (3830 JP). 
The multiple is not terribly impressive. It could be better. But they only need 5.8% of the 39.1% they do not own to get this over the hump.
Synergies are clear. They are expected. They are not priced in the valuation. This is disappointing. Again.


Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) - Light, But Tough to Block

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.</li>
<li>Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.</li>
<li>IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&amp;D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.</li>
</ul>


Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.
Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.
IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&amp;D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.


Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With 3 days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has a 11.29% weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. That means double capping in March.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.</li>
<li>Double capping will result in big selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.</li>
</ul>


With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we had a look at the possible A/H listing for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a>, along with a few large IPOs in India .</li>
<li>On the placements front, while there weren't any large deals launched, we did look at the lockup expiry for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43690:1" rel="noopener">Timee Inc (215A JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanil-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43687:1" rel="noopener">Sanil Electric (062040 KS).</a>
</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at the possible A/H listing for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), along with a few large IPOs in India .
On the placements front, while there weren't any large deals launched, we did look at the lockup expiry for Timee Inc (215A JP) and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).



ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) - CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal's, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>For the week, the Nikkei added 4.1% while the Topix gained 2.7%. Stocks were buoyed by a rebound in AI-related beneficiaries: Fujikura (22%), Softbank (+16%), and Advantest (+10%).</li>
<li>The “Magnificent Seven”  stocks have added a staggering $11 trillion in market cap since the start of 2023—an amount equivalent to two entire Japanese stock markets.</li>
<li>If investors want MORE U.S and MORE Tech exposure, Softbank has positioned itself at the front and centre of the AI revolution. </li>
</ul>


For the week, the Nikkei added 4.1% while the Topix gained 2.7%. Stocks were buoyed by a rebound in AI-related beneficiaries: Fujikura (22%), Softbank (+16%), and Advantest (+10%).
The “Magnificent Seven”  stocks have added a staggering $11 trillion in market cap since the start of 2023—an amount equivalent to two entire Japanese stock markets.
If investors want MORE U.S and MORE Tech exposure, Softbank has positioned itself at the front and centre of the AI revolution. 


Japan Strategy Week | SoftBank's Starring Role in the Stargate Revolution

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) - Light, But Tough to Block

Today, Freebit announced it would buy out minorities in 60.89%-owned Giga Prize. Given they have somewhat similar businesses in places, synergies...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Opportunities to watch for higher JP SPE, keep an eye on Advantest after recent drop. IT/SaaS companies like Fujitsu and NEC worth looking at with...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) - CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal's, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Japan Strategy Week | SoftBank's Starring Role in the Stargate Revolution

Japanese stocks surged this week, driven by AI-related companies like Fujikura, Softbank, and Advantest. Softbank stands out for investors seeking...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Freebit (3843) Buys Out Minorities in Giga Prize (3830) - Light, But Tough to Block

Today, Freebit announced it would buy out minorities in 60.89%-owned Giga Prize. Given they have somewhat similar businesses in places, synergies...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel's like a Dead Cat Bounce

Opportunities to watch for higher JP SPE, keep an eye on Advantest after recent drop. IT/SaaS companies like Fujitsu and NEC worth looking at with...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) - CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal's, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Japan Strategy Week | SoftBank's Starring Role in the Stargate Revolution

​Japanese stocks surged this week, driven by AI-related companies like Fujikura, Softbank, and Advantest. Softbank stands out for investors seeking...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese stocks surged this week, driven by AI-related companies like Fujikura, Softbank, and Advantest. Softbank stands out for investors seeking...