Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Funding done, stock's shares still falling – what is the market pricing?<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank </a>has invested $64.6bn for about 13% of OpenAI, and the $40bn bridge loan has been repaid and cancelled.</li>
<li>
What is left is a mark, not a cash call. The stake is both equity upside + collateral for a $10bn margin loan priced at SOFR plus 425 basis points.</li>
<li>
10 November Earnings: results for the six months to 30 September will show whether that mark holds.</li>
</ul>



Funding done, stock's shares still falling – what is the market pricing?Softbank has invested $64.6bn for about 13% of OpenAI, and the $40bn bridge loan has been repaid and cancelled.

What is left is a mark, not a cash call. The stake is both equity upside + collateral for a $10bn margin loan priced at SOFR plus 425 basis points.

10 November Earnings: results for the six months to 30 September will show whether that mark holds.


How SoftBank (9984 JP) Became a Proxy to Trade OpenAI, One Headline at a Time...

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.</li>
<li>OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.</li>
<li>DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.
OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.
DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.


This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> was rallying strong until last Friday, then dropped -11% on Monday. Various factors contributed to this event.</li>
<li>Heavy unwinding of previous speculative gains triggered a sharp risk-off repricing of the group's NAV discount and leverage risk profile. Our model flagged the stock as 'oversold'.</li>
<li>Industry commentary from Anthropic, OpenAI, and tech leaders calling for caution/slowing in frontier AI development could temporarily favor a continuation of the sell-off, but we see a buy opportunity.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) was rallying strong until last Friday, then dropped -11% on Monday. Various factors contributed to this event.
Heavy unwinding of previous speculative gains triggered a sharp risk-off repricing of the group's NAV discount and leverage risk profile. Our model flagged the stock as 'oversold'.
Industry commentary from Anthropic, OpenAI, and tech leaders calling for caution/slowing in frontier AI development could temporarily favor a continuation of the sell-off, but we see a buy opportunity.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook After 11% One-Day Drop

Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>A cross-country study on the post earning announcement drift effect.</li><li>We explore the use of various options-implied analytics to systematically view returns around earnings announcements.  </li><li>Options-Implied Analytics can provide empowering information to better inform investment decisions.</li></ul>

A cross-country study on the post earning announcement drift effect.We explore the use of various options-implied analytics to systematically view returns around earnings announcements.  Options-Implied Analytics can provide empowering information to better inform investment decisions.

EQD | A Systematic Look at the Post Earnings Announcement Drift Across Asia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite trading up from its multi-year low implied stub and simple ratio (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>), SoftBank remains "cheap".</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on SoftBank - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8553:1" rel="noopener">YTL Corp (YTL MK)</a>- are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite trading up from its multi-year low implied stub and simple ratio (Softbank Group (9984 JP)/ARM Holdings (ARM US)), SoftBank remains "cheap".
Preceding my comments on SoftBank - and YTL Corp (YTL MK)- are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: A SoftBank Set-Up Hinges Off Its All-In OpenAI Bet

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

How SoftBank (9984 JP) Became a Proxy to Trade OpenAI, One Headline at a Time...

OpenAI has no share price, so investors now trade SoftBank (9984 JP) as a proxy, using OpenAI headlines. The stock fell 13.4% in six sessions since...

Nico Rosti

This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

This week in AI: Anthropic cut prices by up to 90% with Claude Haiku 5.5, OpenAI's annualized revenue reached about USD 50bn, and Moonshot closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook After 11% One-Day Drop

SoftBank’s 11% drop on Sep 14 presents a potential mean-reversion setup, though downside risk remains until NAV discount stabilizes. Risk-defined...

Nico Rosti

EQD | A Systematic Look at the Post Earnings Announcement Drift Across Asia

We leverage a few analytics from NewMark Risk's proprietary Options Implied Analytics library to enhance common strategies to trade earnings...

Nicholas Pezolano

StubWorld: A SoftBank Set-Up Hinges Off Its All-In OpenAI Bet

From an implied stub angle, and IF you have a strong opinion on OpenAI, I might be inclined to set up the stub here. The simple ratio - SoftBank...

David Blennerhassett

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