Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-9984-jp-tactical-outlook-buying-opportunity-despite-overvaluation-concerns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last Jan 14 insight</a> about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> we highlighted a buy opportunity for this stock. A number of weeks have passed, here is the updated forecast.</li>
<li>
The stock at the moment is overbought, according to our model: reached 4251 on Monday at the Close. May be a Takaichi elections effect, but it is still overbought. </li>
<li>Softbank was the only deeply oversold stock, of all the Pan-Asian stocks we track, so it was due for a rebound but now it reached the Q3 profit target.
</li>
</ul>


In our last Jan 14 insight about Softbank Group (9984 JP) we highlighted a buy opportunity for this stock. A number of weeks have passed, here is the updated forecast.

The stock at the moment is overbought, according to our model: reached 4251 on Monday at the Close. May be a Takaichi elections effect, but it is still overbought. 
Softbank was the only deeply oversold stock, of all the Pan-Asian stocks we track, so it was due for a rebound but now it reached the Q3 profit target.



SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of 12 Feb Earnings Results

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">SoftBank Group (9984 JP)</a> reports Q3 FY2025 earnings on 12 February at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.</li>
<li>
Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch, in-line with historic experience.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.</li>
</ul>



SoftBank Group (9984 JP) reports Q3 FY2025 earnings on 12 February at 15:30 JST, with a conference call at 16:30 JST.

Highlights: SoftBank’s post-earnings moves are often sharp and unpredictable — with outliers above ±12%. Options markets flag the results day as a high-volatility event to watch, in-line with historic experience.

Why Read: Essential for investors or options traders focused on Japan: Understand how timing, historic patterns and current volatility pricing shape both opportunity and risk around SoftBank earnings.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Results on 12 Feb: Expected Move and Option Insights

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, Greenko Energy, Perusahaan Listrik (PLN)</li>
<li>UST yields were stable yesterday. There was strong demand for an auction of 2Y notes, albeit it had little impact on the curve. The yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST were unchanged at 3.59% and 4.21%, respectively. Equities continued their advance, ahead of earnings from large tech firms.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,950, while the Nasdaq was up 0.4% at 23,601. Gold climbed past USD 5 k, as the USD fell to the lowest level since 2022 on speculation that the US could coordinate currency intervention with Japan to support the JPY.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, Greenko Energy, Perusahaan Listrik (PLN)
UST yields were stable yesterday. There was strong demand for an auction of 2Y notes, albeit it had little impact on the curve. The yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST were unchanged at 3.59% and 4.21%, respectively. Equities continued their advance, ahead of earnings from large tech firms.
The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,950, while the Nasdaq was up 0.4% at 23,601. Gold climbed past USD 5 k, as the USD fell to the lowest level since 2022 on speculation that the US could coordinate currency intervention with Japan to support the JPY.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> revealed in early November the sale of all its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.</li>
<li>The stock has remained flat since, and there is a lot of skepticism around SoftBank Group role as a major technology investor.</li>
<li>The stock appears to be bottoming, our model indicate it is short-term oversold (WEEKLY time period) so this may be a good opportunity to buy it at a discounted price.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) revealed in early November the sale of all its NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) stake. Softbank sold off for the entire month, losing 44% of its value.
The stock has remained flat since, and there is a lot of skepticism around SoftBank Group role as a major technology investor.
The stock appears to be bottoming, our model indicate it is short-term oversold (WEEKLY time period) so this may be a good opportunity to buy it at a discounted price.


SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke</li>
<li>UST yields were mixed yesterday. The UST curve twisted slightly steeper, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 2 bps to 3.48%, while the 10Y was unchanged at 4.00%. Equities rose for a fourth day, supported by a continued recovery in tech stocks. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 0.8% to 6,813 and 23,215, respectively.</li>
<li>The Fed Beige Book for November 2025 showed that overall consumer spending had declined further since the October report.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke
UST yields were mixed yesterday. The UST curve twisted slightly steeper, with the yield on the 2Y UST rising 2 bps to 3.48%, while the 10Y was unchanged at 4.00%. Equities rose for a fourth day, supported by a continued recovery in tech stocks. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and 0.8% to 6,813 and 23,215, respectively.
The Fed Beige Book for November 2025 showed that overall consumer spending had declined further since the October report.


Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of 12 Feb Earnings Results

SoftBank Group moved too quickly from deeply oversold to strongly overbought, hitting our model’s Q3 profit target. May be a "Takaichi effect" but...

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP) Results on 12 Feb: Expected Move and Option Insights

Softbank Group to report Q3 FY2025 earnings with high volatility expected, essential for Japan-focused investors and options traders.

Gaudenz Schneider

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, Greenko Energy, Perusahaan...

Lucror Analytics

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Nico Rosti

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook Ahead of 12 Feb Earnings Results

SoftBank Group moved too quickly from deeply oversold to strongly overbought, hitting our model’s Q3 profit target. May be a "Takaichi effect" but...

Nico Rosti

SoftBank (9984 JP) Results on 12 Feb: Expected Move and Option Insights

​Softbank Group to report Q3 FY2025 earnings with high volatility expected, essential for Japan-focused investors and options traders.

Gaudenz Schneider

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, Greenko Energy, Perusahaan...

Lucror Analytics

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Buying Opportunity Despite Overvaluation Concerns

​Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...

Nico Rosti

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group, China Vanke

Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group to report Q3 FY2025 earnings with high volatility expected, essential for Japan-focused investors and options traders.

Softbank Group sold its entire NVIDIA stake in October and lost 44% of its value in November. Skepticism around its tech investor role has been...