Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Teradyne +18.9% on a solid beat so watch testing peers Advantest, Micronics and Tera Probe for upside.</li>
<li>Marvell +7% on the potential for greater MSFT sales should also help ASIC peer Socionext.</li>
<li>ARM and Qualcomm both down after hours on numbers, dampening the mood for smartphone related (and Softbank).</li>
</ul>


Teradyne +18.9% on a solid beat so watch testing peers Advantest, Micronics and Tera Probe for upside.
Marvell +7% on the potential for greater MSFT sales should also help ASIC peer Socionext.
ARM and Qualcomm both down after hours on numbers, dampening the mood for smartphone related (and Softbank).


Japan Morning Connection: Big Boosts to AI Capex Plans for MSFT and META Will Lift Japan SPE

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As per news reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> could look to sell some/all of its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> stake, worth around US$4bn</li>
<li>Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.


Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown - Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 - August 1.</li>
<li>
<strong>OVERSOLD</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> are just mildly oversold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is oversold.</li>
<li>
<strong>OVERBOUGHT</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 28 - August 1.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) are just mildly oversold, NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is oversold.

OVERBOUGHT: Amazon (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) , NVIDIA (NVDA US) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Hang Seng Index , Nikkei 225 INDEX 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Big Boosts to AI Capex Plans for MSFT and META Will Lift Japan SPE

Teradyne reported that their testing segment was their standout performer which should be a positive for Advantest and related. Dempened mood for...

Andrew Jackson

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown - Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

As per recent media reports, Prosus has begun selling some of its stake in Meituan. Although for now it appears to be selling on market instead of...

Sumeet Singh

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Big Boosts to AI Capex Plans for MSFT and META Will Lift Japan SPE

Teradyne reported that their testing segment was their standout performer which should be a positive for Advantest and related. Dempened mood for...

Andrew Jackson

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown - Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

As per recent media reports, Prosus has begun selling some of its stake in Meituan. Although for now it appears to be selling on market instead of...

Sumeet Singh

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 28 – August 1

​Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...

Nico Rosti

Key indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds forecast for the week July 28 - August 1: NIFTY oversold, while Amazon, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Toyota...