Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li>So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
What’s new: SoftBank Group (9984 JP) has pulled back from its 2 June high, losing 15.6% over ten days, while implied volatility remains elevated at 92%, in the 96th percentile.</li>
<li>
The opportunity: Elevated volatility creates unusually rich short-dated put premium, allowing investors to harvest income while potentially setting a lower entry point if the stock is assigned.</li>
<li>
Options angle: The setup shifts SoftBank from a pure post-pullback stock call to a tactical option-income opportunity, with strike selection framed around support levels, breakeven prices, and assignment risk.</li>
</ul>



What’s new: SoftBank Group (9984 JP) has pulled back from its 2 June high, losing 15.6% over ten days, while implied volatility remains elevated at 92%, in the 96th percentile.

The opportunity: Elevated volatility creates unusually rich short-dated put premium, allowing investors to harvest income while potentially setting a lower entry point if the stock is assigned.

Options angle: The setup shifts SoftBank from a pure post-pullback stock call to a tactical option-income opportunity, with strike selection framed around support levels, breakeven prices, and assignment risk.


SoftBank (9984 JP): Tactical Put Underwriting After Sharp Pullback

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> dropped 12.53% on Friday, possibly after news of Open AI evaluating a delay of its IPO after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> retreated sharply from its post-IPO peak value.</li>
<li>We wrote our opinion about the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> IPO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spacex-tactical-outlook-short-the-mega-cap-debut" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Frankly it's a bit early to panic just because of a pullback, our forecast is on a multi-month window.</li>
<li>However, most AI-related stocks, including those financing AI-businesses, like SoftBank Group, have valuations that are too stretched/excessive. We analyze SoftBank’s potential support targets in the event of a continued sell-off.
</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) dropped 12.53% on Friday, possibly after news of Open AI evaluating a delay of its IPO after SpaceX (SPCX US) retreated sharply from its post-IPO peak value.
We wrote our opinion about the SpaceX (SPCX US) IPO here. Frankly it's a bit early to panic just because of a pullback, our forecast is on a multi-month window.
However, most AI-related stocks, including those financing AI-businesses, like SoftBank Group, have valuations that are too stretched/excessive. We analyze SoftBank’s potential support targets in the event of a continued sell-off.



SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook After SpaceX Slump Delays OpenAI IPO Monetization

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OpenAI's private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.</li>
<li>China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.</li>
<li>AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI's private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.
China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.
AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.


This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> reports FY2025 earnings on 13 May 2026 after market close. The nearest listed options expiry after the event is 11 June.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Options imply a ±7.7% earnings move, above the historical median/average range, while near-term IV sits above 80% and close to historical highs.</li>
<li>
Why Read: After a 60% one-month rally, SoftBank’s earnings reaction could drive both stock-level and index volatility, with option spreads offering an alternative to standalone long or short option positions.</li>
</ul>



Context: Softbank Group (9984 JP) reports FY2025 earnings on 13 May 2026 after market close. The nearest listed options expiry after the event is 11 June.

Highlights: Options imply a ±7.7% earnings move, above the historical median/average range, while near-term IV sits above 80% and close to historical highs.

Why Read: After a 60% one-month rally, SoftBank’s earnings reaction could drive both stock-level and index volatility, with option spreads offering an alternative to standalone long or short option positions.


SoftBank Group (9984 JP) Results on 13 May 2026: High Volatility Meets a 60% One-Month Rally

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Softbank Group (9984 JP)

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

SoftBank (9984 JP): Tactical Put Underwriting After Sharp Pullback

SoftBank’s pullback and elevated implied volatility create a tactical put-underwriting setup, offering short-dated premium income with strike...

Gaudenz Schneider

SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook After SpaceX Slump Delays OpenAI IPO Monetization

SoftBank (9984 JP) collapsed 12.53% on Friday after OpenAI’s IPO timeline shift rumors. Macro-driven flush creates an asymmetric entry...

Nico Rosti

This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

This week in AI: OpenAI pushed IPO expectations beyond 2026, the AI slowdown debate reached markets and policy, and Chinese labs kept shipping models.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SoftBank Group (9984 JP) Results on 13 May 2026: High Volatility Meets a 60% One-Month Rally

SoftBank Group (9984 JP) is due to report on 13 May 2026. As of the 11 May close, options imply a move of about ±8.7%. With implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)