Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>South32's Q1/26 operational results declined overall yoy, inline with guidance, with output down for all metals except for manganese</li>
<li>A turn around continues, with segments that were non-core or facing major operating issues sold off, while the prices of its major metals have rebounded this year</li>
<li>The P/B has hovered just above 1.0x for years on low returns from the restructuring and global health crisis, leaving room for expansion on an expected rebound in ROE </li>
</ul>


South32's Q1/26 operational results declined overall yoy, inline with guidance, with output down for all metals except for manganese
A turn around continues, with segments that were non-core or facing major operating issues sold off, while the prices of its major metals have rebounded this year
The P/B has hovered just above 1.0x for years on low returns from the restructuring and global health crisis, leaving room for expansion on an expected rebound in ROE 


South32: Q1/26 Output Down But Range of Pressures Priced In

<ul>
<li>The aluminum price could remain high this year, beyond just the output reduction from the conflict in the Middle East, with limitations on supply also from other regions </li>
<li>This could boost South32's EBITDA potentially beyond consensus, with a shift away from alumina and towards aluminum this year, given the yoy decline in the price of the former  </li>
<li>The low P/B at 1.5x leaves room for a rerating on a potential recovery from the weak ROE which justified the large discount to BHP and Rio in recent years</li>
</ul>


The aluminum price could remain high this year, beyond just the output reduction from the conflict in the Middle East, with limitations on supply also from other regions 
This could boost South32's EBITDA potentially beyond consensus, with a shift away from alumina and towards aluminum this year, given the yoy decline in the price of the former  
The low P/B at 1.5x leaves room for a rerating on a potential recovery from the weak ROE which justified the large discount to BHP and Rio in recent years


South32: Potential Aluminum Boost With Muted Valuation

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Interview with Vuslat, who runs a mining investment company in South Africa</li><li>South Africa is rich in commodities like PGMs, Chrome, Manganese, Coal, and Iron Ore</li><li>South Africa offers rule of law, democracy, and security of tenure, making it an attractive investment destination for mining companies</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Interview with Vuslat, who runs a mining investment company in South AfricaSouth Africa is rich in commodities like PGMs, Chrome, Manganese, Coal, and Iron OreSouth Africa offers rule of law, democracy, and security of tenure, making it an attractive investment destination for mining companiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Extracting value from overlooked mines (Vuslat Bayoglu Interview)

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 14th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 14th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles

Australia

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

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South32 Ltd (S32 AU)

South32: Q1/26 Output Down But Range of Pressures Priced In

While Q1/26 production declined, the company may be exiting a low-return and multiple restructuring period, with underlying metals prices...

Graeme Cunningham

South32: Potential Aluminum Boost With Muted Valuation

A higher aluminum price on supply constraints beyond just the Straits closure could boost earnings and offset an alumina decline, while the muted P...

Graeme Cunningham

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 25th): Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Steadfast, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, Ampol, BHP.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Extracting value from overlooked mines (Vuslat Bayoglu Interview)

In summary, Mina is a private mining investment company in South Africa, benefiting from the country's rich ore deposits and supportive government...

Money of Mine

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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