Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Southern Copper Corporation delivered a strong financial performance supported by favorable commodity prices and higher by-product contributions, but forward-looking commentary highlights a more complex operating trajectory shaped by declining ore grades, moderating production, and cost sensitivities.</li><li>Record revenue, EBITDA, and net income were primarily driven by pricing strength across copper and by-products such as silver, zinc, and molybdenum, alongside disciplined cost management and operational execution.</li><li>However, underlying production trends indicate emerging constraints, particularly as copper output is expected to decline in the near term due to lower ore grades in key Peruvian operations, which introduces pressure on unit costs and volume growth.</li></ul>

Southern Copper Corporation delivered a strong financial performance supported by favorable commodity prices and higher by-product contributions, but forward-looking commentary highlights a more complex operating trajectory shaped by declining ore grades, moderating production, and cost sensitivities.Record revenue, EBITDA, and net income were primarily driven by pricing strength across copper and by-products such as silver, zinc, and molybdenum, alongside disciplined cost management and operational execution.However, underlying production trends indicate emerging constraints, particularly as copper output is expected to decline in the near term due to lower ore grades in key Peruvian operations, which introduces pressure on unit costs and volume growth.

Southern Copper Corporation: A Close Look At Its Silver and Zinc Strategy—How By-Products Are Boosting Margins!

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>China's overall copper ore/concentrate imports (which feed China's copper smelters) are showing no signs of letting up, with volumes up 10% YoY to 2.6 million tons. </li>
<li>US data for copper imports also show solid growth for FY25 (1.9 million short tons vs 1.3 million in FY24, up 52%) and for 3MFY26, up ~51% YoY. </li>
<li>Our short-term call on copper is that volatility will persist, given the current situation (we have been wrong lately, as it is very unpredictable).  Long-term, we are constructive. </li>
</ul>


China's overall copper ore/concentrate imports (which feed China's copper smelters) are showing no signs of letting up, with volumes up 10% YoY to 2.6 million tons. 
US data for copper imports also show solid growth for FY25 (1.9 million short tons vs 1.3 million in FY24, up 52%) and for 3MFY26, up ~51% YoY. 
Our short-term call on copper is that volatility will persist, given the current situation (we have been wrong lately, as it is very unpredictable).  Long-term, we are constructive. 


Copper: China Copper Concentrate Imports Show No Signs Of Letting Up

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.</li>
<li>Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.</li>
<li>Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.</li>
</ul>


Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.
Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.
Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.


Copper in Focus: US Tariff Risks Fuel Stockpiling; VBM IPO Hits Roadblock

<ul>
<li>Copper prices rebounded last week by 5.6% YoY amid optimism over peace talks with Iran/US and a very small <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/china-moves-ban-sulphuric-acid-exports-iran-war-hits-supply" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost push from China's ban on sulphuric acid</a> exports.</li>
<li>Unfortunately, over the weekend, it was announced that there has been <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-trump-iran-hormuz-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-talks-pakistan-rcna285140" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no resolution in the peace talks</a> between the countries, which we believe will weigh on copper prices.</li>
<li>We see copper hit the 11k USD/ton level in the short term, as over 1 million tons of the metal are to be destocked on exchanges. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices rebounded last week by 5.6% YoY amid optimism over peace talks with Iran/US and a very small cost push from China's ban on sulphuric acid exports.
Unfortunately, over the weekend, it was announced that there has been no resolution in the peace talks between the countries, which we believe will weigh on copper prices.
We see copper hit the 11k USD/ton level in the short term, as over 1 million tons of the metal are to be destocked on exchanges. 


Copper: No Resolution To The Peace Talks + High Inventories = Destock And Lower Prices

<ul>
<li>Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). </li>
<li>Our recent picks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ero-copper-corp-ero-us-ero-cn-update-q2-fy26-results-cash-inflection-confirmed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:262650" rel="noopener">Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
<li>We also like bellwethers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). 
Our recent picks Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed /Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 
We also like bellwethers like Lundin Mining (LUN CN) / Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Southern Copper Corporation: A Close Look At Its Silver and Zinc Strategy—How By-Products Are Boosting Margins!

Southern Copper Corporation delivered a strong financial performance supported by favorable commodity prices and higher by-product contributions,...

Baptista Research

Copper: China Copper Concentrate Imports Show No Signs Of Letting Up

Copper prices have been supported by strategic stockpiling and import demand. Short-term outlook is uncertain amid persistent volatility;...

Sameer Taneja

Copper in Focus: US Tariff Risks Fuel Stockpiling; VBM IPO Hits Roadblock

Chile’s supply disruptions and firm physical demand support copper, while a firmer US dollar, measured positioning and profit-taking introduce...

Mint Finance

Copper: No Resolution To The Peace Talks + High Inventories = Destock And Lower Prices

Copper markets will remain extremely volatile as TACO keeps switching on and off, with the latest negotiations making little headway and inventory...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

With copper now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, we provide a list of our top sector picks, along with updates on the market and its current drivers.

Sameer Taneja

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