Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A confluence of a weakening dollar, lacklustre supply growth, and tailwinds from the demand narrative led copper to break 12k USD/ton by year-end.</li>
<li>The situation has been exacerbated by stockpiling in the US due to an impending 15% tariff on copper effective January 2027, resulting in "economically trapped" inventory. </li>
<li>We remain bullish on copper and expect 2026 to be another tight year, with prices potentially breaching 13k USD/ton. </li>
</ul>


A confluence of a weakening dollar, lacklustre supply growth, and tailwinds from the demand narrative led copper to break 12k USD/ton by year-end.
The situation has been exacerbated by stockpiling in the US due to an impending 15% tariff on copper effective January 2027, resulting in "economically trapped" inventory. 
We remain bullish on copper and expect 2026 to be another tight year, with prices potentially breaching 13k USD/ton. 


Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year

<ul>
<li>We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. </li>
<li>These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. </li>
<li>We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. 
These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. 
We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.</li>
<li>COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.</li>
<li>Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.</li>
</ul>


LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.
COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.
Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.


Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

<ul>
<li>Copper inventory on the COMEX surpassed 400,000 tons on Friday, marking an increase of 330% from the beginning of the year, amidst speculation of a levy of tariffs.</li>
<li>The Department of Commerce has issued a proclamation imposing a 15% tariff in 2027, with the rate increasing to 30% by 2028, implying a LME-Comex Spread of &gt;3000 USD/ton.</li>
<li>In addition to the sucking up of copper inventory into the US, we have supply shortages (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/grasberg-to-weigh-on-copper-supply-in-the-medium-term-march-to-12k-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204971" rel="noopener">Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a> )</li>
</ul>


Copper inventory on the COMEX surpassed 400,000 tons on Friday, marking an increase of 330% from the beginning of the year, amidst speculation of a levy of tariffs.
The Department of Commerce has issued a proclamation imposing a 15% tariff in 2027, with the rate increasing to 30% by 2028, implying a LME-Comex Spread of &gt;3000 USD/ton.
In addition to the sucking up of copper inventory into the US, we have supply shortages (see: Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton )


Stockpiling of Copper in the Comex: A One-Year Trade, Inventories Now at 25% of US Demand

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year

We end the year with copper breaking 12k USD/ton. Our call for early next year is copper breaching 13k USD/ton, due to a confluence of factors,...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

Chile’s weakening output and fresh DRC export curbs are deepening concerns over mined copper supply, with China’s softer import demand emerging as...

Mint Finance

Stockpiling of Copper in the Comex: A One-Year Trade, Inventories Now at 25% of US Demand

The most recent bull case for copper is the Department of Commerce's expected 2027 imposition of a 15% levy on copper, which we have discussed,...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

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