Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. </li>
<li>The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.</li>
<li>We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. 
The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.
We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like Southern Copper (SCCO US) , Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US).


Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>After selling its coking coal business to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> has pivoted to copper as its primary growth driver. </li>
<li>The 7.3 bn CAD cash (20% of Mkt cap) received from the sale of the coal business stake is being used for buybacks, debt repayment, and growth opportunities.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap on an EV-EBITDA basis at 7.5x, but we are not too fond of the business's low ROCE. </li>
</ul>


After selling its coking coal business to Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Teck Resources (TECK US) has pivoted to copper as its primary growth driver. 
The 7.3 bn CAD cash (20% of Mkt cap) received from the sale of the coal business stake is being used for buybacks, debt repayment, and growth opportunities.  
The stock is cheap on an EV-EBITDA basis at 7.5x, but we are not too fond of the business's low ROCE. 


Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

<ul>
<li>Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China's weak print on TSF. The plenum's lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. </li>
<li>Check out our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-primer-what-we-like-about-copper-and-what-to-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:141017" rel="noopener">Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play</a>, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. </li>
<li>Also, see our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a>. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.</li>
</ul>


Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China's weak print on TSF. The plenum's lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. 
Check out our initiation, Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. 
Also, see our initiation, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.


Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

<ul>
<li>Copper rebounded last week, rising 4% on the LME and 6% on the COMEX, led by improved sentiment but in line with most of its commodity complex peers.</li>
<li>Check out our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-primer-what-we-like-about-copper-and-what-to-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:141017" rel="noopener">Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper and What to Play</a>, and our equity initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a>. </li>
<li>We provide updates on the long copper-short gold trade we explored last week and the iron condor in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper rebounded last week, rising 4% on the LME and 6% on the COMEX, led by improved sentiment but in line with most of its commodity complex peers.
Check out our initiation, Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper and What to Play, and our equity initiation, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own. 
We provide updates on the long copper-short gold trade we explored last week and the iron condor in Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) 


Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% </li>
<li>With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.</li>
<li>A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) in the equity space is the best way to play bullish copper long-term with its long-term (10-year) ROCE of &gt;22% 
With low-cost production assets in Peru and Mexico, the company has managed EBITDA margins of&gt; 39% across the cycle (last 15 years) and averaging 50%.
A 100% payout results in a dividend yield of 3.5%. We believe there is a price for everything, and in the event of a 20% correction, it would be attractive.


United States

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

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Southern Copper (SCCO US)

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

Building on our coverage in copper equities, we initiate on Teck Resources (TECK US). We explore its future growth prospects after selling its coal...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore for July

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own

We initiate on Southern Copper (SCCO US), a high-quality copper play with assets in Peru and Mexico. Its long term ROCE >22% makes its a very...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

Building on our coverage in copper equities, we initiate on Teck Resources (TECK US). We explore its future growth prospects after selling its coal...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore for July

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own

We initiate on Southern Copper (SCCO US), a high-quality copper play with assets in Peru and Mexico. Its long term ROCE >22% makes its a very...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

Copper Tracker July 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades