Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed.  Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.
</li>
<li>The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.</li>
<li>SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed.  Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.

The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.
SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.


<ul>
<li>Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.</li>
<li>The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.</li>
<li>Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year.  The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially since the company announced its IPO filing.
The private market valuation, based on funding rounds, tripled between February and May this year, adding roughly $600 billion to its market value. The company participates in AI circular financing.
Valuation compression, competition from Chinese open-source models, regulatory challenges, slowing token usage, and market share loss are pre-IPO challenges for the company.


ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Enterprises are slashing AI bills by up to 17x through "model routing," i.e. using cheap open models for routine execution while reserving expensive frontier models strictly for high-stakes workflows.</li>
<li>Plunging token prices are clashing with surging infrastructure costs; OpenAI is bleeding cash subsidising free users, while Anthropic’s projected profitability relies heavily on temporary and discounted compute deals.</li>
<li>The survival of frontier labs depends on ditching opaque token metering. Enterprises demand fixed-cost, embedded workflows over open-ended compute bills that spike unpredictably based on hidden context lengths.</li>
</ul>


Enterprises are slashing AI bills by up to 17x through "model routing," i.e. using cheap open models for routine execution while reserving expensive frontier models strictly for high-stakes workflows.
Plunging token prices are clashing with surging infrastructure costs; OpenAI is bleeding cash subsidising free users, while Anthropic’s projected profitability relies heavily on temporary and discounted compute deals.
The survival of frontier labs depends on ditching opaque token metering. Enterprises demand fixed-cost, embedded workflows over open-ended compute bills that spike unpredictably based on hidden context lengths.


The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<div><ul><li>The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and quantum.</li><li>In the AI Flood Watch (Top 10 Format), we curate the period’s top AI and quantum news items, classify them as Rising, Neutral, or Falling, and provide takeaways.</li><li>This issue features nine Rising, zero Neutral, and one Falling stories.</li></ul></div>

The WTR AI Flow Newsletter highlights recent developments in AI and quantum.In the AI Flood Watch (Top 10 Format), we curate the period’s top AI and quantum news items, classify them as Rising, Neutral, or Falling, and provide takeaways.This issue features nine Rising, zero Neutral, and one Falling stories.

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI - July 7, 2026

<ul>
<li>SpaceX's greenshoe exercise lifted its public float from 4.3% to 4.8%, but passive tracking capital is still forced to compete for a rationed public float with no near-term relief.</li>
<li>Cumulative Volume Delta turned negative at the exact moment price hit its all-time high, revealing aggressive selling beneath an apparently bullish tape.</li>
<li>With over 60% of day-one volume executed off-exchange, the reference price index funds must use on July 7 is effectively being set in the dark.</li>
</ul>


SpaceX's greenshoe exercise lifted its public float from 4.3% to 4.8%, but passive tracking capital is still forced to compete for a rationed public float with no near-term relief.
Cumulative Volume Delta turned negative at the exact moment price hit its all-time high, revealing aggressive selling beneath an apparently bullish tape.
With over 60% of day-one volume executed off-exchange, the reference price index funds must use on July 7 is effectively being set in the dark.


Anatomy of a Liquidity Trap: SpaceX’s NDX Entry and the Inter-Market Arbitrage

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

SpaceX Hits the Moon.... Literally !!

SpaceX released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed. Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the...

David Mudd

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

Token prices are plunging, AI capex is surging, and enterprises are exploiting the gap. Discover why model routing is squeezing OpenAI and...

Mint Finance

Anatomy of a Liquidity Trap: SpaceX’s NDX Entry and the Inter-Market Arbitrage

SpaceX's public float increased to 4.8%, but passive tracking capital still faces competition for limited shares. Negative CVD at stock's ATH...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SpaceX Hits the Moon.... Literally !!

SpaceX released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed. Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the...

David Mudd

ANTHROPIC IPO: Will Investors Accept a Down Round?

Anthropic faces a potential "Down Round" in its IPO slated for later this year. The dynamics of the AI sector have deteriorated substantially...

David Mudd

The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

Token prices are plunging, AI capex is surging, and enterprises are exploiting the gap. Discover why model routing is squeezing OpenAI and...

Mint Finance

AI Flow Newsletter : Monitoring The "Currents" Of AI - July 7, 2026

In the AI Flood Watch (Top 10 Format), we curate the period’s top AI and quantum news items, classify them as Rising, Neutral, or Falling, and...

Water Tower Research

Anatomy of a Liquidity Trap: SpaceX’s NDX Entry and the Inter-Market Arbitrage

​SpaceX's public float increased to 4.8%, but passive tracking capital still faces competition for limited shares. Negative CVD at stock's ATH...

Mint Finance

SpaceX's public float increased to 4.8%, but passive tracking capital still faces competition for limited shares. Negative CVD at stock's ATH...