Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Rebalanced Unicorn Economy: Driven by AI, the unicorn economy is healthier and more balanced, shifting toward fewer companies that are each raising significantly larger amounts of funding.</li>
<li>The "Magnificent Eight" Private Index: A highly diverse group of private megacaps—including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Stripe—is delivering unprecedented growth and aggressively outperforming the public market’s "Mag 7".</li>
<li>The Scale Power Law: Counterintuitively, companies worth over $100 billion have a 31% chance of a 10x return, proving that top winners are compounding faster than ever before.</li>
</ul>


The Rebalanced Unicorn Economy: Driven by AI, the unicorn economy is healthier and more balanced, shifting toward fewer companies that are each raising significantly larger amounts of funding.
The "Magnificent Eight" Private Index: A highly diverse group of private megacaps—including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Stripe—is delivering unprecedented growth and aggressively outperforming the public market’s "Mag 7".
The Scale Power Law: Counterintuitively, companies worth over $100 billion have a 31% chance of a 10x return, proving that top winners are compounding faster than ever before.


Coatue @ All-In Summit: Executive Summary & Full Transcript

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The three mega IPOs are coming in 2026. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> is slated to start trading this month with a valuation in the neighborhood of $2 trillion.</li>
<li>Anthropic and OpenAI are the largest AI-focused firms preparing to go public soon.  Anthropic's valuation reached $965 billion in its last funding round, versus OpenAI's $850 billion valuation. </li>
<li>Going forward, AI competition will focus on efficient large-scale deployment and less on peak model intelligence.  As compute costs increase, financial strength and access to infrastructure will determine future success.</li>
</ul>


The three mega IPOs are coming in 2026. SpaceX (SPCX US) is slated to start trading this month with a valuation in the neighborhood of $2 trillion.
Anthropic and OpenAI are the largest AI-focused firms preparing to go public soon.  Anthropic's valuation reached $965 billion in its last funding round, versus OpenAI's $850 billion valuation. 
Going forward, AI competition will focus on efficient large-scale deployment and less on peak model intelligence.  As compute costs increase, financial strength and access to infrastructure will determine future success.


THE MEGA IPOs: A Rising Tide Lifts A.I. Boats !!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a> has filed its S-1 prospectus, with the IPO targeting to be on 12 Jun. There are several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese listed companies that may benefit. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-top-numerical-control-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45697:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Top Numerical Control (7688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongyu-communication-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25352:1" rel="noopener">Tongyu Communication (002792 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-sunway-communicatin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13458:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Sunway (300136 CH)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-zaisheng-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25126:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Zaisheng Technology (603601 CH)</a> are more direct.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apt-satellite-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12240:1" rel="noopener">APT Satellite (1045 HK)</a> may gain from the spillover effects of the SpaceX IPO.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US) has filed its S-1 prospectus, with the IPO targeting to be on 12 Jun. There are several Hong Kong and mainland Chinese listed companies that may benefit. 

Shanghai Top Numerical Control (7688 HK), Tongyu Communication (002792 CH), Shenzhen Sunway (300136 CH), and Chongqing Zaisheng Technology (603601 CH) are more direct.

AviChina Industry &amp; Technology (2357 HK) and APT Satellite (1045 HK) may gain from the spillover effects of the SpaceX IPO.


China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Three businesses, one ticker: Starlink is the only profitable division worth ~12% of market cap; Launch has lost money 23/24 years; "AI" is ~US$26bn of GPU rental from two tenants.</li>
<li>SOTP: Connectivity US$252bn, Space US$40bn, AI US$130bn, plus ~US$50bn net cash = US$472bn (US$36/share) vs. US$2,046bn market cap. Probability-weighted across bear/base/bull: US$42.</li>
<li>Initiate SELL, TP US$42 (−73%): the float is the fundamental. A ~4% free float meets forced index buying now; staggered lockups expand supply ~10x by 8 December.</li>
</ul>


Three businesses, one ticker: Starlink is the only profitable division worth ~12% of market cap; Launch has lost money 23/24 years; "AI" is ~US$26bn of GPU rental from two tenants.
SOTP: Connectivity US$252bn, Space US$40bn, AI US$130bn, plus ~US$50bn net cash = US$472bn (US$36/share) vs. US$2,046bn market cap. Probability-weighted across bear/base/bull: US$42.
Initiate SELL, TP US$42 (−73%): the float is the fundamental. A ~4% free float meets forced index buying now; staggered lockups expand supply ~10x by 8 December.


Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>We expect no changes for the September 2026 index rebal event, though SpaceX's free-float increase should still drive roughly US$13bn of one-way flow.</li>
<li>We expect three ADDs and four DELs at the December 2026 annual reconstitution, with DELs necessarily exceeding ADDs by one to bring member count back to 100.</li>
</ul>


The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest names listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.
We expect no changes for the September 2026 index rebal event, though SpaceX's free-float increase should still drive roughly US$13bn of one-way flow.
We expect three ADDs and four DELs at the December 2026 annual reconstitution, with DELs necessarily exceeding ADDs by one to bring member count back to 100.


Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

United States

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., doing business as SpaceX, operates as an aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company. The Company designs and manufactures rockets, human spaceflight, and global satellite internet services. SpaceX serves customers worldwide.

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SpaceX (SPCX US)

Coatue @ All-In Summit: Executive Summary & Full Transcript

The Scale Power Law: Counterintuitively, companies worth over $100 billion have a 31% chance of a 10x return, proving that top winners are...

William Keating

THE MEGA IPOs: A Rising Tide Lifts A.I. Boats !!

The three mega IPOs are coming in 2026. SpaceX (SPCX US) is slated to start trading this month with a valuation in the neighborhood of $2 trillion.

David Mudd

China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

One profitable telecom, one loss-making rocket mission, and a GPU rental dressed as AI — worth US$472bn, priced at US$2.05tn on a 4% float that...

Mo Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

Paramount Skydance (PSKY US) will move its listing to the NYSE on 6 October 2026, and following its 21 September settlement, its acquisition of WBD...

Anjana Amarasuriya

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Coatue @ All-In Summit: Executive Summary & Full Transcript

The Scale Power Law: Counterintuitively, companies worth over $100 billion have a 31% chance of a 10x return, proving that top winners are...

William Keating

THE MEGA IPOs: A Rising Tide Lifts A.I. Boats !!

The three mega IPOs are coming in 2026. SpaceX (SPCX US) is slated to start trading this month with a valuation in the neighborhood of $2 trillion.

David Mudd

China Strategy: Some Main Beneficiaries of SpaceX Listing

​SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX US): - Three Companies, One Ticker, Zero Margin of Safety

One profitable telecom, one loss-making rocket mission, and a GPU rental dressed as AI — worth US$472bn, priced at US$2.05tn on a 4% float that...

Mo Aziz

Quiddity Leaderboard Nasdaq100 Sep26 Rebal: Still No Changes in September

Paramount Skydance (PSKY US) will move its listing to the NYSE on 6 October 2026, and following its 21 September settlement, its acquisition of WBD...

Anjana Amarasuriya

SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, benefiting HK and China-listed companies like Shanghai Top Numerical Control, Tongyu, Shenzhen Sunway, and...