Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Laeven and Valencia (2012, 2018, 2020) provide an empirically sound framework to determine if a banking crisis should be defined systemic.</li>
<li>The first condition of a systemic banking crisis - significant signs of financial distress in the banking system - has been met.</li>
<li>The second condition of a systemic banking crisis - significant banking policy intervention - has not been met, including the impressive intervention of the SNB in the Swiss banking system.</li>
</ul>


Laeven and Valencia (2012, 2018, 2020) provide an empirically sound framework to determine if a banking crisis should be defined systemic.
The first condition of a systemic banking crisis - significant signs of financial distress in the banking system - has been met.
The second condition of a systemic banking crisis - significant banking policy intervention - has not been met, including the impressive intervention of the SNB in the Swiss banking system.


An Evidence-Based Framework to Determine if This Is a Systemic Banking Crisis

<ul>
<li>SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.</li>
<li>The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>


SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.
Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.
The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500.


Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

<ul>
<li>Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). </li>
<li>The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280</li>
<li>As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.</li>
</ul>


Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.


Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

<ul>
<li>Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.</li>
<li>We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.</li>
<li>Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.</li>
</ul>


Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.
We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.


Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

United States

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate as closely as possible the performance of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index, an equal-weighted index.

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SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE US)

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

An Evidence-Based Framework to Determine if This Is a Systemic Banking Crisis

There is ample empirical data available on banking crises to make a well-informed judgment if we are in one or heading for one.

Jeroen Blokland

Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

The $SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside and...

Vermilion Research

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

A bear market rally (+10% from the lows) remains in play as long as the $SPX remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the $IWM remains above...

Vermilion Research

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