TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is a short. We know. You can't short it. But it is a short.</li>
<li>We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic...some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU</li>
<li>Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. </li>
</ul>


Tesla is a short. We know. You can't short it. But it is a short.
We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic...some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU
Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This morning, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> shares. </li>
<li>The distribution is 457,326,671 Tencent-held (86.4% of holdings) Class A Ordinary shares of JD.com - 1 share per 21 Tencent shares held - to Qualifying Shareholders on the record...</li>
<li>...date which is 25 January 2022, with 'delivery' on or about 25 March 2022. Non-Qualifying Shareholders will get cash. The details matter.</li>
</ul>


This morning, Tencent (700 HK) declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) / JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares. 
The distribution is 457,326,671 Tencent-held (86.4% of holdings) Class A Ordinary shares of JD.com - 1 share per 21 Tencent shares held - to Qualifying Shareholders on the record...
...date which is 25 January 2022, with 'delivery' on or about 25 March 2022. Non-Qualifying Shareholders will get cash. The details matter.


Tencent's Big In-Specie Dividend of JD.com Shares

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

NetEase Cloud Music / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-not-yet-a-sound-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61441" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment</a>, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61537" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive.  </li>
<li>It priced its IPO at HK$205 and closed <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3121049/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E7%B6%B2%E6%98%93%E9%9B%B2%E9%9F%B3%E6%A8%829899%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E6%94%B6%E8%B7%8C2-%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E7%B4%84%E8%9D%95200%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">-2% lower</a> in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. 
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive.  
It priced its IPO at HK$205 and closed -2% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price.  


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> is the second-largest online music platform after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> in China. It has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-not-yet-a-sound-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61441" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment</a>, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



Cloud Village (CLV HK) is the second-largest online music platform after Tencent Music (TME US) in China. It has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point.
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. 


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO.
The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO - Cornered Deal but Offers Limited Upside

Luxembourg

Spotify Technology S.A. provides music streaming services. The Company offers commercial free music and ad-supported services to subscribers. Spotify Technology serves clients worldwide.

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Spotify (SPOT US)

1H22 Obex Research Short Portfolio

Our top short ideas for 2022: Tesla, Roku, Palantir, Spotify, Doordash, Expensify, AMC, and Teradata. Continue to like pandemic related...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent's Big In-Specie Dividend of JD.com Shares

Tencent has decided to distribute the vast majority of the JD.com shares it holds. JD.com got sold off and Tencent got a bump. The Tencent bump is...

Travis Lundy

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Trading Debut

Cloud Village will commence trading on Thursday, 2 December. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price of...

Arun George

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights

Cloud Village has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive....

Arun George

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO - Cornered Deal but Offers Limited Upside

Cloud Village, also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$450m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM...

Sumeet Singh

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