Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SRF is seeing gradual uptick in its specialty chemical business from existing products, and healthy contribution is expected from new AIs in FY26, iii) refrigerant gases like R22 and R32 are seeing a firm pricing environment across geographies.</li><li>Chemicals business (CB) has reported a beat in Q3FY25 (revenue higher 10% QoQ/7% YoY) with higher margins (EBIT margin of 24.3% vs 18%/23% in Q2FY24/Q3FY25), and Q4 is expected to be reasonably better YoY.</li><li>Packaging Films business (PFB) saw stable performance and registered improvement in margins sequentially.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SRF is seeing gradual uptick in its specialty chemical business from existing products, and healthy contribution is expected from new AIs in FY26, iii) refrigerant gases like R22 and R32 are seeing a firm pricing environment across geographies.Chemicals business (CB) has reported a beat in Q3FY25 (revenue higher 10% QoQ/7% YoY) with higher margins (EBIT margin of 24.3% vs 18%/23% in Q2FY24/Q3FY25), and Q4 is expected to be reasonably better YoY.Packaging Films business (PFB) saw stable performance and registered improvement in margins sequentially.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kama-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10170:1" rel="noopener">Kama Holdings (KHL IN)</a>is available at 80% discount to its NAV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kama-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10170:1" rel="noopener">Kama Holdings (KHL IN)</a> is Holding company of SRF Ltd (SRF IN), which has tailwind across segments.</li>
<li>If the discount were to narrow from 81% to 56%, the price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kama-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10170:1" rel="noopener">Kama Holdings (KHL IN)</a> could potentially double, assuming all other factors remain constant.</li>
</ul>



Kama Holdings (KHL IN)is available at 80% discount to its NAV.

Kama Holdings (KHL IN) is Holding company of SRF Ltd (SRF IN), which has tailwind across segments.
If the discount were to narrow from 81% to 56%, the price of Kama Holdings (KHL IN) could potentially double, assuming all other factors remain constant.


The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-June and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 20 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could have passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity and moderation in auto fuel marketing margins</li><li>IOCL’s Q2FY26 reported EBITDA at INR 146bn (+286.6% YoY, +15.7% QoQ) and APAT at INR76bn (+41.2x YoY, +33.8% QoQ) came in below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margin and marketing volumes</li><li>Reported GRMs came in at USD 10.66/bbl (+5.7x YoY, +3.9x QoQ)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity and moderation in auto fuel marketing marginsIOCL’s Q2FY26 reported EBITDA at INR 146bn (+286.6% YoY, +15.7% QoQ) and APAT at INR76bn (+41.2x YoY, +33.8% QoQ) came in below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margin and marketing volumesReported GRMs came in at USD 10.66/bbl (+5.7x YoY, +3.9x QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

India

SRF Limited is a multi-business Indian multinational engaging in the manufacture of chemical based industrial intermediates. The Company has a business portfolio that encompasses technical textiles, chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

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SRF Ltd (SRF IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

SRF - Worst Is Behind; Upgrade to BUY

SRF is seeing gradual uptick in its specialty chemical business from existing products, and healthy contribution is expected from new AIs in FY26

Emkay

The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

An Interesting Deep Value Holding Company: Kama Holdings trades at an 80% discount to its NAV, with potential for price to double if discount...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

SRF - Worst Is Behind; Upgrade to BUY

SRF is seeing gradual uptick in its specialty chemical business from existing products, and healthy contribution is expected from new AIs in FY26

Emkay

The Beat Ideas: Kama Holdings- A Growing Player at Deep Discount

An Interesting Deep Value Holding Company: ​Kama Holdings trades at an 80% discount to its NAV, with potential for price to double if discount...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in November. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies...

HDFC Securities

An Interesting Deep Value Holding Company: Kama Holdings trades at an 80% discount to its NAV, with potential for price to double if discount...