Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Notes to financial statements show rampant deterioration in credit metrics for both banks</li>
<li>BEA's write-offs in property development impaired loans rise by 4.1x in 1H23 vs <em>FY22</em>
</li>
<li>Overdue loans by &gt;1yr rose 277% HoH in 1H23 at Dah Sing, but it <em>cut credit costs 48%</em>
</li>
</ul>


Notes to financial statements show rampant deterioration in credit metrics for both banks
BEA's write-offs in property development impaired loans rise by 4.1x in 1H23 vs FY22

Overdue loans by &gt;1yr rose 277% HoH in 1H23 at Dah Sing, but it cut credit costs 48%



BEA & Dah Sing - Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics, Not Totally Visible in Headline Results

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades</li>
<li>The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains</li>
<li>Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?</li>
</ul>


Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades
The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains
Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?


Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

<ul>
<li>MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key</li>
</ul>


MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance
MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance
There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key


MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assets</li><li>Personnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as ambassador to U.S.</li><li>Corruption /: Jilin Province Trust’s former chairman sentenced to 14 years in prison</li></ul>

Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assetsPersonnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as ambassador to U.S.Corruption /: Jilin Province Trust’s former chairman sentenced to 14 years in prison

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Chinese Trust Firms’ Scramble to Offload Risky Assets

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Q1 2023, 86 different Hong Kong-listed companies bought back shares either locally or on foreign exchanges. Total buybacks were HK$22.856bn.</li>
<li>8 Companies made up 90% of the total. On average, they bought back shares 4 days out of every 10 within the quarter. </li>
<li>A lot of the smaller companies doing buybacks were significant portions of their volume.</li>
</ul>


In Q1 2023, 86 different Hong Kong-listed companies bought back shares either locally or on foreign exchanges. Total buybacks were HK$22.856bn.
8 Companies made up 90% of the total. On average, they bought back shares 4 days out of every 10 within the quarter. 
A lot of the smaller companies doing buybacks were significant portions of their volume.


HK Buybacks Q1 2023: 8 Names Are 90% of the Total - AIA, Tencent, StanChart, Greatwall the Big 4

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

BEA & Dah Sing - Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics, Not Totally Visible in Headline Results

Credit metrics worsening substantially at BEA and Dah Sing, and well beyond what is visible in headline figures. There are implications also for...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Japan Post Bank profit is entirely driven by gains on bonds, stocks, securities, and this can continue. It may though be considered low quality,...

Daniel Tabbush

MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

MUFG's purchase of Mandala in Indonesia may sound enticing, but the reality is that this is too small to matter, while perspective shows no major...

Daniel Tabbush

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Chinese Trust Firms’ Scramble to Offload Risky Assets

Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assets Personnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as...

Caixin Global

HK Buybacks Q1 2023: 8 Names Are 90% of the Total - AIA, Tencent, StanChart, Greatwall the Big 4

86 names listed in HK bought back shares in Q1. 90% of total buybacks were done by 8 names. half the names bought back less than US$1mm. AIA,...

Travis Lundy

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