HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. </li>
<li>Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a> are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. </li>
<li>It is difficult to trade at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue (2097 HK)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming (1364 HK)</a>'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1% places it ahead of most peers in F&amp;B retailing, including the tea beverage sector. 
Operating on a franchise model, its 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs are not expensive, as peers ex-Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) are averaging at 15x and 12.4x. 
It is difficult to trade at Mixue (2097 HK)'s and Guming (1364 HK)'s ~20x, due to lower margins. Our fair value is 16.5x PER, equalling HK$300.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls.</li>
<li>We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food deliveries, because competitors’ earnings were even worse.</li>
<li>The stock surged by 13% in NYSE after the result release, but we still believe it has an upside of 48% for next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls.
We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food deliveries, because competitors’ earnings were even worse.
The stock surged by 13% in NYSE after the result release, but we still believe it has an upside of 48% for next twelve months.


Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War

<ul>
<li>Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.</li>
<li>The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.</li>
<li>The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>


Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.
The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.
The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.


Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27th January, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus (DADA US)</a></strong>, a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, was offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Those terms are now firm and a <a href="https://ir.imdada.cn/static-files/76b0510f-d0c8-4d31-8eae-0c8d4bc000b6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">definitive agreement entered into</a>.</li>
<li>The merger is expected to close in the third quarter. Trading at 4.7%/15%, gross/annualised spread, assuming a four month off-ramp.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27th January, Dada Nexus (DADA US), a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from JD.com (9618 HK).
JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, was offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Those terms are now firm and a definitive agreement entered into.
The merger is expected to close in the third quarter. Trading at 4.7%/15%, gross/annualised spread, assuming a four month off-ramp.


Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com's US$2/ADS Firm Offer

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

China

Sun Art Retail Group operates hypermarkets, superstores, and membership stores under the RT-Mart, RT-Super, and M-Club brands, alongside online sales channels in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides consulting, investment, procurement, wholesaling, and retailing services. The Group was established on December 13, 2000, and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Sun Art Retail Group (6808 HK)

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War

The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls. We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Management claimed total revenue should grow by 10% YoY in 4Q25 if excluding two sold subsidiaries. The growth rate of customer management revenue...

Ming Lu

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com's US$2/ADS Firm Offer

This is a clean deal. Just a question of timing. The spread is attractive. I'd look to enter around here and on any pullback.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

For the month of March, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$14bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Not Expensive with Moderate Upside

​Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War

The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls. We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Management claimed total revenue should grow by 10% YoY in 4Q25 if excluding two sold subsidiaries. The growth rate of customer management revenue...

Ming Lu

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com's US$2/ADS Firm Offer

This is a clean deal. Just a question of timing. The spread is attractive. I'd look to enter around here and on any pullback.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

For the month of March, 13 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$14bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Busy Ming outperforms peers in F&B retailing at a 3-year EPS CAGR of 43.1%, with a cheap IPO at 13x FY26F and 10.2x FY27F PERs. The fair value is...