Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A year ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> was still/again cheap. Back then it traded at a 48% discount to the value of its shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>. </li>
<li>It spent much of the last few months at a 25-35% discount. Last Tuesday it was a 25% discount. By Friday, it was a 1.2% discount after Cellebrite shares plummeted. </li>
<li>Sun Corp shares have reacted this morning but the discount is entirely too narrow. If you have the pair on, time to take it off. </li>
</ul>


A year ago I wrote Sun Corp (6736 JP) was still/again cheap. Back then it traded at a 48% discount to the value of its shares in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). 
It spent much of the last few months at a 25-35% discount. Last Tuesday it was a 25% discount. By Friday, it was a 1.2% discount after Cellebrite shares plummeted. 
Sun Corp shares have reacted this morning but the discount is entirely too narrow. If you have the pair on, time to take it off. 


[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736 JP) - Not So Cheap Anymore

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Despite the recent pull-back, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>'s implied stub, netting off 44.3%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>, remains elevated.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite the recent pull-back, Sun Corp (6736 JP)'s implied stub, netting off 44.3%-held Cellebrite DI (CLBT US), remains elevated.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) As A Value Play Is Less Apparent

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX Index - Japan's premier domestic equity index - will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. </li>
<li>There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. </li>
<li>The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX Index - Japan's premier domestic equity index - will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. 
There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. 
The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part V (Final Prep)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sun Corp (6736 JP): A deep-value holding company trading below the value of its 44% stake in NASDAQ-listed Cellebrite; positioned as a discounted proxy on the growth of digital forensics. </li>
<li>MegaChips (6875 JP): A fabless semiconductor firm with a legacy ASIC business but a hidden asset in its ¥160 billion SiTime stake; City Index Eleven to pressure value unlock</li>
<li>KeePer (6036 JP): A high-margin car detailing business with embedded optionality through its SOFT99 stake; activist entry by Misaki Capital ensures governance pressure.</li>
</ul>


Sun Corp (6736 JP): A deep-value holding company trading below the value of its 44% stake in NASDAQ-listed Cellebrite; positioned as a discounted proxy on the growth of digital forensics. 
MegaChips (6875 JP): A fabless semiconductor firm with a legacy ASIC business but a hidden asset in its ¥160 billion SiTime stake; City Index Eleven to pressure value unlock
KeePer (6036 JP): A high-margin car detailing business with embedded optionality through its SOFT99 stake; activist entry by Misaki Capital ensures governance pressure.


Japan Activist Briefs | Sun Corp, MegaChips, KeePer

Japan

SUN CORPORATION operates mainly Pachinko related business, information and communication business.  Pachinko related business includes developing, manufacturing and selling a system to control and monitor pachinko machine, and manage business operation.  Sun Corp. also manufactures Pachinko and household appliances and develops game software for family use.

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Sun Corp (6736 JP)

[Japan Activism] Sun Corp (6736 JP) - Not So Cheap Anymore

Sun Corp saw its discount to CLBT holdings widen from 1.2% when I wrote to 23% in about 8 days. Then it started narrowing again. The company...

Travis Lundy

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) As A Value Play Is Less Apparent

Sun Corp as a value play is less clear here. I'd look to reverse the stub if the discount to the CLBT holding dips to mid-teens. But not...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part V (Final Prep)

The TSE announcement for wholesale changes in the TOPIX Index is scheduled for Wednesday after the close. I expect 34-35 ADDs, ~700 DELETEs, and...

Travis Lundy

Japan Activist Briefs | Sun Corp, MegaChips, KeePer

Three overlooked Japanese mid-caps; Sun Corp, MegaChips, and KeePer, reflect a broader shift in Japan’s equity landscape as activists push balance...

Mark Chadwick

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