Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The wait is finally over.  The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut in September meeting, kick- starting a new rate cut cycle</li>
<li>The rate cut is an absolute game changer for Hong Kong real estate.  Physical market will recover with lower mortgage rate and companies will enjoy lower borrow rate</li>
<li>With the macro backdrop in US and China, Hong Kong is well positioned for as strong re-rating with mega catalysts ahead – Buy HK real estate, especially SHKP and NWD</li>
</ul>


The wait is finally over.  The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut in September meeting, kick- starting a new rate cut cycle
The rate cut is an absolute game changer for Hong Kong real estate.  Physical market will recover with lower mortgage rate and companies will enjoy lower borrow rate
With the macro backdrop in US and China, Hong Kong is well positioned for as strong re-rating with mega catalysts ahead – Buy HK real estate, especially SHKP and NWD


HK RE Series (4) With Macro Backdrop in US & China, HK Is Positioned for a Strong Rerating, Buy Now!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

<ul>
<li>Jackson Hole is annual event among central bankers and economists, where Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking on Friday</li>
<li>In the scenario of a new Fed rate cut cycle, we expect Hong Kong RE, China RE and Singapore RE to benefit, while investors can reduce exposure in Japan RE</li>
<li>We also recommend some trade ideas based on our analysis and suggest specific stocks</li>
</ul>


Jackson Hole is annual event among central bankers and economists, where Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking on Friday
In the scenario of a new Fed rate cut cycle, we expect Hong Kong RE, China RE and Singapore RE to benefit, while investors can reduce exposure in Japan RE
We also recommend some trade ideas based on our analysis and suggest specific stocks


A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?

<ul>
<li>We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China's latest rate cut</li>
<li>We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market</li>
<li>HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating</li>
</ul>


We look at the global macro themes that are impacting the equity market including the US election, the Fed and China's latest rate cut
We also look at the latest condition in Hong Kong, including the rates, the economy and the physical RE market
HK RE stocks continue to trade at compelling valuation, but fund flows are needed if we want a re-rating


HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>When property advisors (JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE etc) debate the bottom of Hong Kong's office/retail market, such commentary is often infused with cautious optimism. </li>
<li>And for good reason, as vacancies increase, and rents soften.</li>
<li>Recent press articles and anecdotal evidence suggests market uncertainty lingers, prompting  landlords to (further) assess their stance on rents.</li>
</ul>


When property advisors (JLL, Knight Frank, CBRE etc) debate the bottom of Hong Kong's office/retail market, such commentary is often infused with cautious optimism. 
And for good reason, as vacancies increase, and rents soften.
Recent press articles and anecdotal evidence suggests market uncertainty lingers, prompting  landlords to (further) assess their stance on rents.


Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

Hong Kong

Sun Hung Kai Properties is a leading diversified real estate developer in Hong Kong, specializing in the development of residential, office, and retail properties for sale and investment. The company also operates in property management, hotels, telecommunications, transport, and infrastructure. Headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong, the group was founded in 1963.

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Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

HK RE Series (4) With Macro Backdrop in US & China, HK Is Positioned for a Strong Rerating, Buy Now!

Under the Fed's rate cut in US and huge economic stimulus in China, we think Hong Kong is well positioned for a rerating. Real estate will benefit...

Jacob Cheng

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

A Scenario Analysis: If Fed Initiates a Rate Cut Cycle, How Should Investors Position Themselves?

We conducted a scenario analysis on Asia real estate if Fed is to initiate a new rate cut cycle. Within Asia, we expect Hong Kong, China and...

Jacob Cheng

HK RE Series (3): Global Macro Starts to Turn More Supportive, Stock Valuation Is Compelling

In this update, we explored the macro themes, including US presidential election, the Fed and China's rate cut and their impact on HK RE stocks. We...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong Property: In Need Of A Good Story

Upgrading and flight-to-quality in the office space has the affect of lifting occupancy in new projects; however such activity largely foreshadows...

David Blennerhassett

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