Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on March and partial weekly April data, in this monthly China Housing commentary, we give our take on the overall housing market performance, its drivers and the outlook, focusing on housing specific metrics.

Based on March and partial weekly April data, in this monthly China Housing commentary, we give our take on the overall housing market performance, its drivers and the outlook, focusing on housing specific metrics. 

The March data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the market for new home sales continues slowing down very gradually in terms of volumes. More significantly, the past 2 months saw declines in land sales (land acquisitions by developers) on a year-to-date and 3-month year-on-year basis, which could potentially indicate a sharp change of the trend from 2018. This early signal is based off only 2 data points, though. Historically, land sales have been a strong predictor of future price growth (with a long lag) - as the most basic measure of supply.

The March data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the market for new home sales continues slowing down very gradually in terms of volumes. More significantly, the past 2 months saw declines in land sales (land acquisitions by developers) on a year-to-date and 3-month year-on-year basis, which could potentially indicate a sharp change of the trend from 2018. This early signal is based off only 2 data points, though. Historically, land sales have been a strong predictor of future price growth (with a long lag) - as the most basic measure of supply. 

Today's China Housing Data: Potentially A Major Signal From The Decline In Land Sales

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today's report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today's report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

Based on our CityScreener(TM) methodology using house price, sales volumes, land sales and new starts metrics, we highlight the major cities in China where we believe the housing markets (new home sales) either enjoy a strong sustained momentum or have a potential cyclical upside relative to other cities.

Based on our CityScreener(TM) methodology using house price, sales volumes, land sales and new starts metrics, we highlight the major cities in China where we believe the housing markets (new home sales) either enjoy a strong sustained momentum or have a potential cyclical upside relative to other cities. 

China Housing: City Picks For The Near-Term Cyclical Upside

Beyond the aggregate figures, most investors interested in China housing markets would look at the breakdown by Tier. We introduce a few alternative ways to cut the house price growth data, illustrating some consistent patterns that could be more meaningful for any investment thesis than the simple by-tier.

Beyond the aggregate figures, most investors interested in China housing markets would look at the breakdown by Tier. We introduce a few alternative ways to cut the house price growth data, illustrating some consistent patterns that could be more meaningful for any investment thesis than the simple by-tier.

China Housing: Cities Without Tiers - An Alternative Data Cut With Illuminating Patterns

China

Sunac China Holdings Ltd. is a major property developer specializing in large-scale, medium to high-end residential and commercial properties. The company also diversifies into cultural tourism, property management, hotels, and ice and snow operations. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

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Sunac China (1918 HK)

China Housing - April 2019 Commentary

Based on March and partial weekly April data, in this monthly China Housing commentary, we give our take on the overall housing market performance,...

Robert Ciemniak

Today's China Housing Data: Potentially A Major Signal From The Decline In Land Sales

The March data released today by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows the market for new home sales continues slowing down very...

Robert Ciemniak

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance....

Vermilion Research

China Housing: City Picks For The Near-Term Cyclical Upside

Based on our CityScreener(TM) methodology using house price, sales volumes, land sales and new starts metrics, we highlight the major cities in...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Cities Without Tiers - An Alternative Data Cut With Illuminating Patterns

Beyond the aggregate figures, most investors interested in China housing markets would look at the breakdown by Tier. We introduce a few...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)