Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You probably have downside to ¥3,720 if EQT's bid lapses. Downside may be limited to ¥3,760 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a> convinces Bain to bid up to negotiate with KDDI.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> extends an olive branch to Elliott, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight.</li>
<li>If one wants SBI to raise the price for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener"> (4477 JP)</a>, it behooves the market to trade at ¥345 again. Get long, or get longer.</li>
</ul>


You probably have downside to ¥3,720 if EQT's bid lapses. Downside may be limited to ¥3,760 if Kakaku.com (2371 JP) convinces Bain to bid up to negotiate with KDDI.

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) extends an olive branch to Elliott, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight.
If one wants SBI to raise the price for (4477 JP), it behooves the market to trade at ¥345 again. Get long, or get longer.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku, Northern Star Resources, BASE Inc, Reliance Worldwide, Cloudbreak

<ul>
<li>Last week,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotus-horizon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49193:1" rel="noopener"> Lotus Horizon (6063 HK)</a> followed in fellow-contractors <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wk-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49355:1" rel="noopener">WK Group (2535 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superland-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55388:1" rel="noopener">Superland Group Holdings (368 HK)</a>'s footsteps, whereby the controlling family exited, triggering an unconditional (massive) takeunder. </li>
<li>Now contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfm-kingdom-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10030:1" rel="noopener">KFM Kingdom (3816 HK)</a> is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Its share price is up ~700% since January.</li>
<li>Controlling shareholders exiting given protracted headwinds for Hong Kong’s private residential and commercial property markets makes sense. Less clear are these irrational price movements before a deal is struck.</li>
</ul>


Last week, Lotus Horizon (6063 HK) followed in fellow-contractors WK Group (2535 HK) and Superland Group Holdings (368 HK)'s footsteps, whereby the controlling family exited, triggering an unconditional (massive) takeunder. 
Now contractor KFM Kingdom (3816 HK) is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Its share price is up ~700% since January.
Controlling shareholders exiting given protracted headwinds for Hong Kong’s private residential and commercial property markets makes sense. Less clear are these irrational price movements before a deal is struck.


Something Is Seriously Amiss As Shares In KFM Kingdom Are Now Suspended

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16344:1" rel="noopener">Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharingtechnology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26948:1" rel="noopener">Sharingtechnology Inc (3989 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenith-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3234:1" rel="noopener">Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cygnus-metals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30504:1" rel="noopener">Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ingenia Communities (INA AU), Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP), and Sharingtechnology Inc (3989 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on:Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU), and Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku, Ingenia Communities, Albis, Sharingtechnology, Cygnus Metals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a> is now down to "pure arb." All approvals are in. All financing done. The remaining trade is to buy and hold until the cash settles.</li>
<li>I see no startling revelation when inspecting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>'s s329 investigative reports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac (4004 JP)</a> is spinning off 80+% of its petrochemical division. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crasus-chemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58630:1" rel="noopener">Crasus Chemical</a> is unlikely to stay in MSCI. Definitely not Nikkei 225. Big selling on Day 1 at the close likely.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP) is now down to "pure arb." All approvals are in. All financing done. The remaining trade is to buy and hold until the cash settles.
I see no startling revelation when inspecting Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)'s s329 investigative reports.

Resonac (4004 JP) is spinning off 80+% of its petrochemical division. Crasus Chemical is unlikely to stay in MSCI. Definitely not Nikkei 225. Big selling on Day 1 at the close likely.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Nippon Sheet Glass, Guotai Junan, Resonac, Skyworth, Fosun, Austal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> wants to buy 20% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE (4477 JP)</a> out of 46.7% likely available. That's unlikely at ¥340; they'll have to bump to get those shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a> has played out nicely. There's still money on the table - just a question mark on timing for the distribution from "surplus cash".</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-chemical-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12781:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)</a>'s turnaround narrative sees it trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sanso-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)</a>'s steady-as-you-go narrative.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) wants to buy 20% of BASE (4477 JP) out of 46.7% likely available. That's unlikely at ¥340; they'll have to bump to get those shares.

Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK) has played out nicely. There's still money on the table - just a question mark on timing for the distribution from "surplus cash".

Mitsubishi Chemical (4188 JP)'s turnaround narrative sees it trading rich (implied stub &amp; simple ratio) to ~51%-held Nippon Sanso Holdings (4091 JP)'s steady-as-you-go narrative.


Last Week In Event SPACE: SBI/BASE, Con Aero Tech, Mitsubishi Chem/Nippon Sanso, Swire Pac, Jollibee

Hong Kong

Superland Group Holdings Limited provides providing fitting-out and maintenance services. The Company provides interior decorative parts upgrade, restoration improvement, repair, replacement installation, and other services. Superland Group Holdings offers services in Hong Kong.

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Superland Group Holdings (368 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku, Northern Star Resources, BASE Inc, Reliance Worldwide, Cloudbreak

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Something Is Seriously Amiss As Shares In KFM Kingdom Are Now Suspended

KFM's' shares are suspended, so nothing to do right now. You could scope out other small‑cap industrial with a concentrated ownership. I'm betting...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku, Ingenia Communities, Albis, Sharingtechnology, Cygnus Metals

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Nippon Sheet Glass, Guotai Junan, Resonac, Skyworth, Fosun, Austal

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: SBI/BASE, Con Aero Tech, Mitsubishi Chem/Nippon Sanso, Swire Pac, Jollibee

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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