Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Suzuki’s 4Q revenue beat consensus by 7.2% but OP missed by 8.9% as a result of raw material costs and a sudden surge in depreciation and R&amp;D. </li>
<li>Guidance was typically conservative at revenue of ¥3,900bn (-4.1% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥195bn (-28.9% vs. consensus). </li>
<li>We believe margin assumptions are too conservative, as are assumptions for volumes and JPY/INR.</li>
</ul>


Suzuki’s 4Q revenue beat consensus by 7.2% but OP missed by 8.9% as a result of raw material costs and a sudden surge in depreciation and R&amp;D. 
Guidance was typically conservative at revenue of ¥3,900bn (-4.1% vs. consensus) and OP of ¥195bn (-28.9% vs. consensus). 
We believe margin assumptions are too conservative, as are assumptions for volumes and JPY/INR.


Suzuki – MSIL In The Driver’s Seat Again

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.</li>
<li>Musk has made a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK)'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. 

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.
Musk has made a non-binding proposal for Twitter Inc (TWTR US) at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s implied stub and simple ratio (Suzuki/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>) are currently at all-time lows.</li>
<li>This bifurcation has become endemic in the relative value space, especially in Japan. </li>
<li>Maruti is trading rich amid its ongoing support for hybrid vehicles. That scenario won't play out well. </li>
</ul>



Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s implied stub and simple ratio (Suzuki/ Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)) are currently at all-time lows.
This bifurcation has become endemic in the relative value space, especially in Japan. 
Maruti is trading rich amid its ongoing support for hybrid vehicles. That scenario won't play out well. 


Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again

<ul>
<li>The virtuous cycle of shareholder return commences as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> starts buying its H-shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki (7269 JP)</a>'s implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki (MSIL IN)</a> remains steadfast in its support for hybrid vehicles. That's a liability.</li>
<li>Quarz's intervention in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial (MAGIC SP)</a> is NOT surprising. They have some past experience complaining about Singaporean REIT mergers and other takeovers. But their analysis is surprising.</li>
</ul>


The virtuous cycle of shareholder return commences as China Mobile (941 HK) starts buying its H-shares.

Suzuki (7269 JP)'s implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL IN) remains steadfast in its support for hybrid vehicles. That's a liability.
Quarz's intervention in Mapletree North Asia Commercial (MAGIC SP) is NOT surprising. They have some past experience complaining about Singaporean REIT mergers and other takeovers. But their analysis is surprising.


Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Suzuki, Mapletree Merger, Bapcor, Toyota Industries/Motor

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio (Suzuki/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>).</li>
<li>The global transition to electric vehicles is underway, spurred on by environmental concerns, government legislation, and financial incentives.</li>
<li>Maruti remains steadfast in its support for hybrid vehicles. In the long run, that's a liability.</li>
</ul>



Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio (Suzuki/Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)).
The global transition to electric vehicles is underway, spurred on by environmental concerns, government legislation, and financial incentives.
Maruti remains steadfast in its support for hybrid vehicles. In the long run, that's a liability.


Suzuki's All-Time Low Stub As Maruti Faces Electric Vehicle Crossroad

Japan

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

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Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)

Suzuki – MSIL In The Driver’s Seat Again

Suzuki stock is reacting negatively to conservative guidance but we believe the key factor here is the surging momentum for MSIL at a time when JPY...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Suzuki’s NAV Discount And Implied Stub Plumb New Lows. Again

I'd be setting up the stub here - long Suzuki, short Maruti - once the momentum begins to turn. Maruti is supporting outdated tech, which will be...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Suzuki, Mapletree Merger, Bapcor, Toyota Industries/Motor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Suzuki's All-Time Low Stub As Maruti Faces Electric Vehicle Crossroad

Suzuki Motor's implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio. Maruti remains steadfast in its support for hybrid...

David Blennerhassett

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