European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).


Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).</li>
</ul>


As of end of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of 78.6% (OMX30, 76.4%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 4.8% discount to NAV (vs. 8.3% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 176,893 million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 360.3 (4.6% upside).


Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>PRC regulatory approvals were satisfied on the 4th March for the Tanoto family's HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0308/2024030800055.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Circular</a> has been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for acceptances.</li>
<li>With a 50% minimum acceptance condition and irrevocables of 72.624% (plus Tanoto's 7.69% direct stake), this should turn unconditional on or before the 19th March</li>
</ul>


PRC regulatory approvals were satisfied on the 4th March for the Tanoto family's HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer for Vinda International (3331 HK). 
The Circular has been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for acceptances.
With a 50% minimum acceptance condition and irrevocables of 72.624% (plus Tanoto's 7.69% direct stake), this should turn unconditional on or before the 19th March


<ul>
<li>On the 15 December 2023, the Tanoto family <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1215/2023121500055.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emerged</a> with a HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda (3331 HK)</a>. PRC regulatory approval to one side, this Offer was a done deal.</li>
<li>Those regulatory approvals have now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0304/2024030402230.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfied</a>. The Composite Doc will be dispatched on or before the 11th March, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances. </li>
<li>With a 50% minimum acceptance condition and irrevocables of 72.624% (plus Tanoto's 7.69% direct stake), this should turn unconditional on or before the 20th March</li>
</ul>


On the 15 December 2023, the Tanoto family emerged with a HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer for Vinda (3331 HK). PRC regulatory approval to one side, this Offer was a done deal.
Those regulatory approvals have now been satisfied. The Composite Doc will be dispatched on or before the 11th March, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances. 
With a 50% minimum acceptance condition and irrevocables of 72.624% (plus Tanoto's 7.69% direct stake), this should turn unconditional on or before the 20th March


Vinda (3331 HK): That's A Wrap As Pre-Cons Done

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27 April, personal hygiene play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> announced its controlling shareholder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a> would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.</li>
<li>That spurred, allegedly, a variety of suitors including Brazil's Suzano, the world's largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, DCP Capital, and Indonesia's Tanoto family.</li>
<li>And the Tanoto's have now emerged with a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1215/2023121500055.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer</a>. The key risk is PRC regulatory approval . Elsewhere, this is a done deal. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 27 April, personal hygiene play Vinda International (3331 HK) announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.
That spurred, allegedly, a variety of suitors including Brazil's Suzano, the world's largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, DCP Capital, and Indonesia's Tanoto family.
And the Tanoto's have now emerged with a HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer. The key risk is PRC regulatory approval . Elsewhere, this is a done deal. 


Sweden

Svenska Cellulosa AB (SCA)  is a global hygiene and forest company that develops and produces personal care products, tissue and forest products.  The Company sells its branded products globally.

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Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca (SCAB SS)

Industrivärden's Q3: NAV Evolution, (Low) Discount, Target NAV, Replication

NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden: H1 Results, NAV Evolution and Discount

End of H1, NAV was SEK 156 billion (SEK 361/share). NAV increased by 4%, gains in portfolio compensated by leverage increase. 5-y total return of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda (3331 HK): Offer Now Open

Trading super tight at a gross/annualised spread of 0.4%/8.1%. Not a lot to see and do here for both arbitrageurs and long-onlies. I still believe ...

David Blennerhassett

Vinda (3331 HK): That's A Wrap As Pre-Cons Done

Trading super tight at a gross/annualised spread of 0.4%/5.7%. Not a lot to see and do here for both arbitrageurs and long-onlies. I think Hengan...

David Blennerhassett

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto's Firm Offer

Assuming (finger in the air) late-July completion, I'd probably buy up to HK$21.50. Hengan International Group (1044 HK) might be worht looking...

David Blennerhassett

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