Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Hengan International Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> are both market leaders in China's personal care industry.</li>
<li>Hengan's operations have greater exposure to sanitary napkins and diapers; whereas tissues account for 83% of Vinda's revenue. Both companies have been impacted by an increase in wood pulp prices.</li>
<li>Hengan is trading cheap; but Vinda's bottom line is forecast to return to its glory days. Plus rumours of a possible takeover of Vinda continue to do the rounds. </li>
</ul>



Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and Vinda International (3331 HK) are both market leaders in China's personal care industry.
Hengan's operations have greater exposure to sanitary napkins and diapers; whereas tissues account for 83% of Vinda's revenue. Both companies have been impacted by an increase in wood pulp prices.
Hengan is trading cheap; but Vinda's bottom line is forecast to return to its glory days. Plus rumours of a possible takeover of Vinda continue to do the rounds. 


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tissue-Maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> closed down 6.4% yesterday, recovering from a 13.8% fall intra day.</li>
<li>Vinda said its 1Q23 operating profit declined 85.4% to HK$65mn. Vinda also announced its controlling shareholder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a> will commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.</li>
<li>A long-term shareholder potentially seeking a possible divestment, shortly after a company announces poor results, is not a great look.</li>
</ul>


Tissue-Maker Vinda International (3331 HK) closed down 6.4% yesterday, recovering from a 13.8% fall intra day.
Vinda said its 1Q23 operating profit declined 85.4% to HK$65mn. Vinda also announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) will commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.
A long-term shareholder potentially seeking a possible divestment, shortly after a company announces poor results, is not a great look.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Brand recognition is a driver of margins and returns for consumer products, but developing and maintaining product superiority is of paramount importance to establish and sustain brands and market share</li>
<li>In this report, we take  look at how well companies in personal hygiene products like diapers, sanitary pads,  linings, and tampons are positioned from a technological perspective</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimberly-clark-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2292:1" rel="noopener">Kimberly Clark (KMB US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicharm-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6246:1" rel="noopener">Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daio-paper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3211:1" rel="noopener">Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> lead the field</li>
</ul>


Brand recognition is a driver of margins and returns for consumer products, but developing and maintaining product superiority is of paramount importance to establish and sustain brands and market share
In this report, we take  look at how well companies in personal hygiene products like diapers, sanitary pads,  linings, and tampons are positioned from a technological perspective

Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US), Kimberly Clark (KMB US) , Unicharm Corp (8113 JP), Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP), and Kao Corp (4452 JP) lead the field


Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at Diapers, Sanitary Pads, and Tampons

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

Sweden

Svenska Cellulosa AB (SCA)  is a global hygiene and forest company that develops and produces personal care products, tissue and forest products.  The Company sells its branded products globally.

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Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca (SCAB SS)

Hengan/Vinda: Pulp Friction

Of the two, Hengan looks unduly beaten up here. I'd tilt outright long in Hengan; or hedge with Vinda (although that's been an awful trade in...

David Blennerhassett

Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK)

A long-term shareholder potentially looking to divest its stake, shortly after a company announces poor results, is not a great look. Pricing for...

David Blennerhassett

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

Stock Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: A Look at Diapers, Sanitary Pads, and Tampons

Spotting the innovation leaders in the hygiene aisle of the supermarkets. A look at the diaper, sanitary pads, and tampon makers.

Pyari Menon

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two...

Vermilion Research

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