Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is coming up "rich" on my monitor vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>; and Cathay "cheap" to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire and Cathay are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is coming up "rich" on my monitor vs. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK); and Cathay "cheap" to Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK).
Preceding my comments on Swire and Cathay are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Is "Rich" To Cathay; And Cathay "Cheap" To Air China

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Yesterday afternoon, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> | <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK)</a> announced a new buyback program. The last one was announced August 2022 and ran until the AGM.</li>
<li>That was HK$4bn. In the meantime the company paid an HK$8.12 special div on the Swire As (14%) in September (on top of the HK$1.20 regular div). </li>
<li>Now they have announced a new HK$6bn buyback buying both A Shares and B shares. Details, index impact, historical B/A trading patterns, etc, below.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday afternoon, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK) announced a new buyback program. The last one was announced August 2022 and ran until the AGM.
That was HK$4bn. In the meantime the company paid an HK$8.12 special div on the Swire As (14%) in September (on top of the HK$1.20 regular div). 
Now they have announced a new HK$6bn buyback buying both A Shares and B shares. Details, index impact, historical B/A trading patterns, etc, below.


Swire (19 HK / 87 HK) Announces NEW, Bigger, Better Buyback

<ul>
<li>The Swire buyback has been impressive. In 27 trading days they have bought back 26.8% of teh HK$4bn promised. In that period, participation has been aggressive.</li>
<li>Swire has bought back As at a pace of 52% of pre-buyback one-year ADV. For Bs, it has been 105%. But Bs have dramatically underperformed As on "HK Re-opening" trades.</li>
<li>Historically, when B/A gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. I'd buy B vs A.</li>
</ul>


The Swire buyback has been impressive. In 27 trading days they have bought back 26.8% of teh HK$4bn promised. In that period, participation has been aggressive.
Swire has bought back As at a pace of 52% of pre-buyback one-year ADV. For Bs, it has been 105%. But Bs have dramatically underperformed As on "HK Re-opening" trades.
Historically, when B/A gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. I'd buy B vs A.


Swire B Vs A - Surprising on Regs, Surprising on Risk; Short-Tm Displacement Now in 99th Percentile

<ul>
<li>Yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> (and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific Ltd-Cl B (87 HK)</a>) announced a buyback of shares according to the 2022 AGM mandates approved in May, limited to HK$4bn. </li>
<li>A reader question prompted me to look more closely at the rules. There are nuances NOT covered in the announcements. So I work through them. </li>
<li>The conclusions are surprising, and lead to one clear trading idea. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) (and Swire Pacific Ltd-Cl B (87 HK)) announced a buyback of shares according to the 2022 AGM mandates approved in May, limited to HK$4bn. 
A reader question prompted me to look more closely at the rules. There are nuances NOT covered in the announcements. So I work through them. 
The conclusions are surprising, and lead to one clear trading idea. 


Swire A Vs Swire B - Regulatory Nuances REALLY Matter

Hong Kong

Swire Pacific Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates in the real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses.

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Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)

StubWorld: Swire Is "Rich" To Cathay; And Cathay "Cheap" To Air China

At these NAV discount levels, I might look to set up the stub, and short Swire Props, which accounts for ~90% of Swire Pac's mkt cap. The ongoing...

David Blennerhassett

Swire (19 HK / 87 HK) Announces NEW, Bigger, Better Buyback

Swire Pacific (19 HK, 87 HK) have announced a new bigger, better buyback of HK$6bn (last time was HK$4bn, $3.3bn executed). This should be a...

Travis Lundy

Swire B Vs A - Surprising on Regs, Surprising on Risk; Short-Tm Displacement Now in 99th Percentile

Swire B vs A over the last 20 years shows unsurprising reversal patterns. We're in the right zone now to be reasonably confident. The buyback is...

Travis Lundy

Swire A Vs Swire B - Regulatory Nuances REALLY Matter

Swire announced a share buyback. The regulatory nuances described in the Announcement and the Appendix to the 2022 AGM Convocation don't cover...

Travis Lundy

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