CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.  

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/663/original/Market%20Risk.png?1450243661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4663"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90</figcaption></figure>In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, credit spreads and commodity prices, as well as their correlations and implied volatilities.” Source: DBS 2014 Annual Report p90In the bank’s 2012 annual report the definition on page 81 was slightly different: “Market risk affects the economic values of financial instruments held by the…

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)</a> trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).</li>
<li>At 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is cheap. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.</li>
<li>Elliott sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-o-s-k-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20717:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)</a> as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP) trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).
At 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is cheap. Swire Properties (1972 HK) at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.
Elliott sees Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP) as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.


Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s FY25 recuring underlying profit was HK$9.7bn, 5% higher than in FY24.</li>
<li>83%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> reported an attributable loss of HK$1.53bn in FY25, up from HK$766mn, as Hong Kong property writedowns dented strong(er) mainland China retail ops. </li>
<li>Swire Pac also announced it would place out 2.52% of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>. Cathay's FY25 bottom line gained 9.5% yoy. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s FY25 recuring underlying profit was HK$9.7bn, 5% higher than in FY24.
83%-Held Swire Properties (1972 HK) reported an attributable loss of HK$1.53bn in FY25, up from HK$766mn, as Hong Kong property writedowns dented strong(er) mainland China retail ops. 
Swire Pac also announced it would place out 2.52% of its stake in Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK). Cathay's FY25 bottom line gained 9.5% yoy. 


Swire (19 HK): On The FY25 Results, Swire Props' HK Writedowns, & Cathay Placement

Hong Kong

Swire Properties is a property developer, owner, and operator of mixed-use, primarily commercial properties. Its core activities include property investment, property trading, and hotel investment and operations. The company was founded and is headquartered in Hong Kong in 1972.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Swire Properties (1972 HK)

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the...

ClearMacro

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

With Radically Lower Oil Prices, Market Risk Assets Is a Focus

In DBS’s year 2014 annual report it defines market risk on page 90 as follows: “Market risk is the risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse...

Daniel Tabbush

Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Swire (19 HK): On The FY25 Results, Swire Props' HK Writedowns, & Cathay Placement

Swire Pac is cheap. You could set up the stub here. Swire Props at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP continues to drag. I'd might be inclined...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)