Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aspirational Luxury Wipeout: A macroeconomic squeeze has erased 50m middle-class luxury consumers, devastating mainland turnover rents as megabrands like Gucci and LVMH report plunging sales.</li>
<li>Hong Kong Office Contagion: Swire faces a brutal second front, with Grade A office vacancies hitting 17.5% and flagship portfolios suffering negative rental reversions up to 16% amid financial exoduses.</li>
<li>Dividend Under Threat: With 7.7 bn HKD in fair value losses and sliding recurring profits, reliance on capital recycling masks underlying decay, threatening dividend growth and valuation.</li>
</ul>


Aspirational Luxury Wipeout: A macroeconomic squeeze has erased 50m middle-class luxury consumers, devastating mainland turnover rents as megabrands like Gucci and LVMH report plunging sales.
Hong Kong Office Contagion: Swire faces a brutal second front, with Grade A office vacancies hitting 17.5% and flagship portfolios suffering negative rental reversions up to 16% amid financial exoduses.
Dividend Under Threat: With 7.7 bn HKD in fair value losses and sliding recurring profits, reliance on capital recycling masks underlying decay, threatening dividend growth and valuation.


The Swire Short: Profiting from the Dual Collapse of China Luxury and HK Offices

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-limited-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s 1H26 reported profit was HK$6.8bn versus HK$815mn in 1H25.</li>
<li>83%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> reported profit of HK$3.6bn vs. a loss of HK$1.2bn in 1H25. 45.12%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> reported a 71% increase in underlying profit of HK$6.2bn.</li>
<li>Note: short interest in Cathay, one the best performing global airlines over the past year (in terms of share price), has picked up since the end of May. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s 1H26 reported profit was HK$6.8bn versus HK$815mn in 1H25.
83%-Held Swire Properties (1972 HK) reported profit of HK$3.6bn vs. a loss of HK$1.2bn in 1H25. 45.12%-held Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reported a 71% increase in underlying profit of HK$6.2bn.
Note: short interest in Cathay, one the best performing global airlines over the past year (in terms of share price), has picked up since the end of May. 


On Swire (19 HK)'s 2026 Interim Results. Still Inexpensive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. </li>
</ul>



Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. 


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. </li>
<li>That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."</li>
<li>This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.</li>
</ul>


RTHK just reporting that HK Finance Secretary Paul Chan has said in his budget speech that HK will remove all property cooling measures in place, with immediate effect. 
That would be That is Special Stamp Duty, Buyer's Stamp Duty, New Residential Stamp Duty. "Measures no longer necessary given the current economic and market conditions."
This should cause people to get excited short-term about property developers.


Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

Hong Kong

Swire Properties is a property developer, owner, and operator of mixed-use, primarily commercial properties. Its core activities include property investment, property trading, and hotel investment and operations. The company was founded and is headquartered in Hong Kong in 1972.

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Swire Properties (1972 HK)

The Swire Short: Profiting from the Dual Collapse of China Luxury and HK Offices

Aspirational Luxury Wipeout: A macroeconomic squeeze has erased 50m middle-class luxury consumers, devastating mainland turnover rents as...

Jacob Cheng

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

On Swire (19 HK)'s 2026 Interim Results. Still Inexpensive

Despite the elevated implied stub, at 0.34x forward P/B, I still like Swire Pac. You could set up the stub or simply go outright long in Swire Pac...

David Blennerhassett

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate...

Arun George

Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

HK Finance Secretary has introduced the 2024-2025 Budget. All "spicy measures" (property cooling measures) are now lifted. This should push the...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Swire Short: Profiting from the Dual Collapse of China Luxury and HK Offices

Aspirational Luxury Wipeout: A macroeconomic squeeze has erased 50m middle-class luxury consumers, devastating mainland turnover rents as...

Jacob Cheng

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

On Swire (19 HK)'s 2026 Interim Results. Still Inexpensive

Despite the elevated implied stub, at 0.34x forward P/B, I still like Swire Pac. You could set up the stub or simply go outright long in Swire Pac...

David Blennerhassett

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate...

Arun George

Hong Kong To Scrap All "Spicy Measures" (Property Cooling Measures)

HK Finance Secretary has introduced the 2024-2025 Budget. All "spicy measures" (property cooling measures) are now lifted. This should push the...

Travis Lundy

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...