Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Virgin Australia Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia (VAH AU)</a> IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.
Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 6th January, Kerry Stokes-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sgh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">SGH Limited (SGH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-dynamics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11061:1" rel="noopener">Steel Dynamics (STLD US)</a><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260106/pdf/06tzv9t8w6g7pg.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">submitted</a> an A$0.30/share cash NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">BlueScope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, Australia’s largest steel manufacturer.</li>
<li>BlueScope summarily rejected terms, stating the Offer "very significantly undervalues" the company. SGH/SDI have now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260218/pdf/06wflzg212dlgh.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">returned with a $32.35/share</a> (best &amp; final) NBIO - $34/share when including A$1.65/share in dividends.</li>
<li>That's a A$15bn bid. Exclusive due diligence is sought. AusSuper, with 13.5% of shares out, holds the key. No scrip alternative is afforded. My guess is AusSuper is not supportive.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 6th January, Kerry Stokes-backed SGH Limited (SGH AU) and Steel Dynamics (STLD US)submitted an A$0.30/share cash NBIO for BlueScope Steel (BSL AU), Australia’s largest steel manufacturer.
BlueScope summarily rejected terms, stating the Offer "very significantly undervalues" the company. SGH/SDI have now returned with a $32.35/share (best &amp; final) NBIO - $34/share when including A$1.65/share in dividends.
That's a A$15bn bid. Exclusive due diligence is sought. AusSuper, with 13.5% of shares out, holds the key. No scrip alternative is afforded. My guess is AusSuper is not supportive.


BlueScope (BSL AU): SGH And SDI's Latest NBIO - What Say You AusSuper?

<ul>
<li>Logistics and infrastructure play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube (QUB AU)</a> has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.</li>
<li>Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.</li>
</ul>


Logistics and infrastructure play Qube (QUB AU) has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.
Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.


Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

<ul>
<li>Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom (4917 JP)</a>. KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.</li>
<li>Panama’s Supreme Court dings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a>'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.</li>
</ul>


Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for Mandom (4917 JP). KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.
Panama’s Supreme Court dings CK Hutchison (1 HK)'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

Australia

Sydney Airport operates the Sydney, Australia airport. The Company develops and maintains the airport infrastructure and leases terminal space to airlines and retailers.

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Sydney Airport (SYD AU)

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Escrow Release Is a Moving Target that Is Getting Closer

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. Some of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

BlueScope (BSL AU): SGH And SDI's Latest NBIO - What Say You AusSuper?

Revised terms are close to SDI's NBIO last year, which was rejected. BlueScope has zero net debt. The USA ops are undervalued. And structurally...

David Blennerhassett

Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

That strikes me as being way too tight, even if factoring in franking credits for those who can take advantage; and especially noting ACCC may well...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

For the month of Jan 2026, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$8bn. The average premium for these new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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