Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: Bain's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/system-information-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19470:1" rel="noopener">System Information (3677 JP)</a> and DCM's for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP)</a>. An Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities  (665 HK)</a> appears imminent.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16267:1" rel="noopener">ENM Holdings (128 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>,</li>
</ul>


I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Bain's Offer for System Information (3677 JP) and DCM's for Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP). An Offer for Haitong International Securities  (665 HK) appears imminent.
Key updates took place for: Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), ENM Holdings (128 HK) and Toyo Construction (1890 JP),


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/system-information-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19470:1" rel="noopener">System Information (3677 JP)</a> has recommended Bain’s tender offer of JPY930 per share, a 21.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 September).</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 50.69% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 19.69% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 37.0% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer is reasonable.</li>
</ul>



System Information (3677 JP) has recommended Bain’s tender offer of JPY930 per share, a 21.9% premium to the undisturbed price (27 September).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 50.69% ownership ratio.
Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 19.69% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition (lower limit) requires a 37.0% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer is reasonable.


System Information (3677 JP): Bain Backed MBO’s JPY930 Tender Offer

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The stock is down more than 50% from its high 3yrs ago. The founder is 79. The CEO is 75. Employees and former directors own another 10%.</li>
<li>This is an exit vs an MBO. And the Target Side negotiating the exit were rolled by Bain. This is NOT an expensive purchase. Bain's equity check is 2.3x EBIT.</li>
<li>But it probably gets done anyway unless someone gets noisy. For that, they'd have to buy a 10-15% stake I expect. </li>
</ul>


The stock is down more than 50% from its high 3yrs ago. The founder is 79. The CEO is 75. Employees and former directors own another 10%.
This is an exit vs an MBO. And the Target Side negotiating the exit were rolled by Bain. This is NOT an expensive purchase. Bain's equity check is 2.3x EBIT.
But it probably gets done anyway unless someone gets noisy. For that, they'd have to buy a 10-15% stake I expect. 


System Information Co (3677 JP) "MBO" By Bain an Exit Trade for Founder+CEO+Employees

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

The global rally appears to be losing steam as the bearish rising wedge patterns we highlighted last week in the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE indexes ended up breaking down. Additionally, the aforementioned indexes and major indexes in Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong have been unable to break above longer-term resistance. While we believe global equities remain vulnerable to a pullback, some near-term consolidation is another possibility. For now we believe some consolidation makes sense as we remain in a sort of wait-and-see period as it relates to what will happen as countries and states aim to re-open.

Global Equity Rally Losing Upside Momentum

Japan

SYSTEM INFORMATION CO.,LTD. designs and develops business applications.  The Company offers the design, development, integration and maintenance of IT solutions and business infrastructure applications.

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System Information (3677 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: System Info, Keiyo, Invocare, Liontown, ENM, Toyo Const.

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett