Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities<em>.</em></p>

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

<p>Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. Major indexes around the world continue to do next to nothing, making Sector, Group, and stock selection all the more important. We prefer to use a barbell strategy of growth and safety. Attractive and actionable themes highlighted in today’s report include IT Services/Tech Software, Communications, Precious Metals, and Utilities.</p>

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. Major indexes around the world continue to do next to nothing, making Sector, Group, and stock selection all the more important. We prefer to use a barbell strategy of growth and safety. Attractive and actionable themes highlighted in today’s report include IT Services/Tech Software, Communications, Precious Metals, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Stay on the Defensive

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. </p>

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major support level we identified as support, and the MSCI ACWI ETF has broken below its 200-day MA, leading us to believe additional consolidation is likely. 

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight"><p>While we think BIC Camera is better suited to tap growth compared to its compatriots in the electronic retail sector, the near-50% rise in its stock price over the last year has made it expensive relative to its peers. We do not think the company's forecasted growth for the fiscal period justifies its expensive valuation. Also, the company needs to push the sales of its private brands and attract more tourists to expand margins and buoy revenue in the future. </p></div><h2><strong>Company Background</strong></h2><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11328" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1">Bic Camera Inc</a>…</p>

While we think BIC Camera is better suited to tap growth compared to its compatriots in the electronic retail sector, the near-50% rise in its stock price over the last year has made it expensive relative to its peers. We do not think the company's forecasted growth for the fiscal period justifies its expensive valuation. Also, the company needs to push the sales of its private brands and attract more tourists to expand margins and buoy revenue in the future. Company BackgroundBic Camera Inc…

BIC Camera Scores on Store Locations; Now It Needs To Draw More Tourists To Buoy Revenue Growth

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We initially screened for names that do not have a lot of cash relative to their short-term debt. We then went a step further and limited the universe to names that have bonds/loans coming due in the next 3 years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP)</a> is the largest names to make the list. Softbank's Short-term debt to cash ratio (%) is 221%. Softbank has ¥1.5tn in cash &amp; short-term investments, compared to ¥3.9tn in short-term debt. </p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap greater than ¥50bn</li>
<li>Short-term Debt to Cash is…</li>
</ol>

We initially screened for names that do not have a lot of cash relative to their short-term debt. We then went a step further and limited the universe to names that have bonds/loans coming due in the next 3 years. Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) is the largest names to make the list. Softbank's Short-term debt to cash ratio (%) is 221%. Softbank has ¥1.5tn in cash &amp; short-term investments, compared to ¥3.9tn in short-term debt. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap greater than ¥50bn
Short-term Debt to Cash is…


Names with Bonds Coming Due and Not a Lot of Cash...

Japan

T-GAIA CORPORATION sells cell-phone units and service contracts in Japan. The Company also offers high-speed internet connection service through sales agencies.

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T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Stay on the Defensive

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain...

Vermilion Research

EM and ACWI Showing Decisive Breakdowns - Metals & Miners Still Attractive

Global markets have deteriorated considerably over the past couple weeks. The MSCI EM index has decisively broken down below the 60,000 major...

Vermilion Research

BIC Camera Scores on Store Locations; Now It Needs To Draw More Tourists To Buoy Revenue Growth

While we think BIC Camera is better suited to tap growth compared to its compatriots in the electronic retail sector, the near-50% rise in its...

Chacko Jacob

Names with Bonds Coming Due and Not a Lot of Cash...

We initially screened for names that do not have a lot of cash relative to their short-term debt. We then went a step further and limited the...

Custom Products Group

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